Energy Market Update - 17 November 2025
Gas and power firmed as a cold spell deepened while wind eased. Storage stays comfortable and Norwegian nominations are steady, keeping curves contained despite stronger prompt.
older weather across North West Europe has extended into late November, lifting heating demand and nudging prompt gas higher. The UK system opened long despite the chill, supported by higher Langeled receipts and strong LNG send out. EU inventories are a touch above 82 per cent, providing a buffer even as injections slow seasonally. At Friday’s close NBP Dec settled around 82.4 pence per therm and TTF Dec near €31.3 per MWh. This morning aggregate Norwegian nominations were reported in the mid 330s mcm per day, while UK LNG send out rose, led by South Hook. JKM remains close to TTF parity, keeping Atlantic cargoes pointed at Europe.
UK Day Ahead baseload cleared in the upper £60s per MWh after a volatile weekend. Front month baseload firmed to the low £80s in line with gas, while Winter remained broadly steady. Forecast wind runs below seasonal norms through this week, keeping CCGT burn elevated during lower renewable hours. Interconnector flows from France and the Netherlands continue to provide margin cover, and higher French nuclear availability limits the upside when wind recovers.
Brent trades near 64 dollars per barrel following the restart of a Russian depot hit last week. API2 Cal 2026 sits close to 103 dollars per tonne. EU carbon holds around €81 per tonne and UK ETS near £57 per tonne, maintaining thermal costs even as recent gains pause. On gas benchmarks Henry Hub is about 3.5 dollars per MMBtu and JKM roughly 11.4 dollars per MMBtu, with the Atlantic Pacific arbitrage still tight.