Energy Market Update - 14 November 2025
Range bound finish. Healthy supply and a mild weekend capped the prompt. Cooler weather early next week and variable wind keep near-term risk balanced, with curves little changed.
Range bound finish. Healthy supply and a mild weekend capped the prompt. Cooler weather early next week and variable wind keep near-term risk balanced, with curves little changed.
Front contracts were steady to softer. TTF December was indicated around €30.5/MWh, while NBP December traded near 80p/therm. EU storage sits just above 82 per cent, with withdrawals still modest for mid-November. Norwegian nominations remain strong at about 340 mcm per day to the continent and roughly 80 mcm per day to the UK. The UK system opened long, supported by higher Langeled receipts and total LNG send-out near the mid-40s mcm per day. Temperatures are set to turn cooler from Tuesday, by around 3 to 4 degrees below seasonal norms in the UK and about 2 degrees below in Germany, which should lift LDZ demand and firm the prompt if wind underperforms. A busy North West Europe LNG schedule into the weekend and early next week adds comfort and should limit upside on brief supply blips.
UK Day-Ahead baseload cleared near £70/MWh, easing as wind recovered late in the session. October’s pattern has persisted into November: the prompt is wind-led intraday, while the curve is guided by gas and carbon. The UK baseload front month was priced around £81/MWh at the time of writing, with Q1 broadly unchanged. Interconnector imports from France and the Netherlands provided margin cover and nuclear availability was stable, although planned UK outages keep output below last year’s levels. Forecasts show choppy wind this weekend then a return to seasonal norms, pointing to continued volatility on hourly blocks but a contained curve profile.
Oil was little moved, with Brent close to 63 dollars per barrel after recent weakness. Coal for 2026 hovered near 101 dollars per tonne. EU carbon eased slightly to the low €81s per tonne, while UK ETS firmed into the upper £50s per tonne. LNG benchmarks were steady, with JKM in the low 11 dollars per MMBtu and European spot-linked values close to TTF parity. Currency shifts were marginal and offered no clear directional pull.