Energy Market Update - 01 December 2025
Gas eased while power firmed as the UK system opened long on stronger LNG and Norwegian flows. Storage is comfortable and wind slightly above norms. Oil ticked up on OPEC+ signals.
NBP day ahead settled at 75.30 p/therm on Friday and opened softer this morning. The UK system started roughly 19 mcm long, supported by higher UKCS output near 103 mcm per day and stronger LNG send out from South Hook, Dragon and Isle of Grain. Langeled nominations held near 74 mcm per day with Vesterled close to 19 mcm per day. Aggregate Norwegian exits to Europe were about 336 mcm per day, slightly below the prior session but trending stable as maintenance ebbs. Continental storage stood near 75.8 per cent after the weekend, a normal seasonal draw. North West Europe has a dense LNG slate this week, largely US sourced, with further arrivals flagged for UK and continental terminals. Asian LNG markers remain steady, keeping Atlantic cargo economics favourable to Europe.
UK day ahead baseload cleared around £80/MWh on Friday, with prices supported by a dip in renewables during core hours before a late rebound. Wind output for the coming days is forecast a touch above seasonal norms, which should temper cash prices when it materialises. Interconnectors from Belgium and the Netherlands continued to provide margin cover, while French flows were steady. Nuclear availability is broadly unchanged, though planned works at Heysham 2 begin mid-week and could tighten margins if wind underperforms. Curve power tracked gas only marginally higher into the open, with Q1 pricing steady and summer strips little changed.
Brent hovered near 63 dollars per barrel after OPEC+ confirmed a pause to planned output increases in early 2026. EU carbon firmed into the weekend at about 83 euros per tonne, with UKAs near 58 pounds per tonne, keeping thermal generation costs elevated even as gas softens. API2 2026 coal printed close to 101 dollars per tonne. JKM sat near 11 dollars per MMBtu and Henry Hub around 4.6 dollars per MMBtu, reinforcing the impression of well supplied global gas balances. GBP traded near 1.1426 against the euro, offering little additional directional pull for UK prices.