Energy Market Update - 02 December 2025
Prices eased again as mild weather and firm supply capped risk. Front month TTF hovered near recent lows while UK contracts tracked softer. Wind dips mid week but remains near norm. LNG stays supportive.
NBP day ahead opened softer at 72.35 p per therm. The UK system was near balanced with demand around 243 mcm and higher pipeline receipts offset by modest storage withdrawals. Norwegian nominations were indicated near 329 mcm per day, with Langeled close to 74 mcm and lower Vesterled flows after a small reduction. LNG send out was strong at about 66 mcm per day, with multiple Atlantic cargoes scheduled for North West Europe and further arrivals at South Hook and Isle of Grain in early December. European storage remains comfortable for the time of year and injections are now slowing. Weather guidance shows temperatures above seasonal norms into mid December, then converging on average. The combination of warm revisions and ample LNG kept the curve contained despite occasional geopolitical headlines.
UK baseload day ahead cleared at £76.76 per MWh and peak at £86.55 per MWh. Wind output is set to ease from last week’s highs but broadly sit around seasonal norms, leaving gas fired plant to flex over the evening peak. Interconnectors from France and the Netherlands continued to provide margin cover. French nuclear availability remained elevated versus last year, helping to steady continental prices when wind recovers. Forward power tracked gas lower, with near curve contracts little changed and winter strips holding a modest premium.
Brent traded near $63 per barrel. API2 Cal 2026 held just under $100 per tonne. EUAs were about €82.6 per tonne and UKAs near £56.5 per tonne, firm enough to keep thermal costs elevated but not directional for the curve. Global gas markers were mixed, with JKM near the low 11 dollars per MMBtu and Henry Hub above 5 dollars per MMBtu, keeping Atlantic cargo flows pointed at Europe. Near term direction rests on wind realisations and day by day Norwegian flows while storage and LNG continue to cap rallies.