Energy Market Report - 22 June 2026
UK and European energy markets opened the week firmer at the prompt even as the geopolitical risk premium began to unwind, with reported progress in US and Iran talks weighing on crude while gas and power drew support from warm weather and tight near-term fundamentals. The wider complex remains well below the levels of a week ago, leaving Monday's strength as a partial retracement rather than a change in trend.
Natural Gas
Gas firmed on Friday and has extended gains this morning, driven by demand-side strength rather than the geopolitical headlines that dominated earlier in the week. NBP front-month settled near 101 p/therm on Friday, up around 4 per cent on the day, and is indicated close to 103 p/therm this morning; the day-ahead settled at 102 p/therm and Winter 26 closed near 107 p/therm. The supportive factors are warm weather across north-west Europe lifting gas-for-power demand, weak wind and reduced nuclear availability, partly offset by comfortable supply: UKCS output near 98 mcm/day, Langeled flows up to around 61 mcm/day after maintenance at Kollsnes ended, and Norwegian exit nominations to the Continent back around 338 mcm/day. UK LNG send-out is light at roughly 10 mcm/day with a single cargo scheduled, while Asian JKM has fallen close to 15 per cent week-on-week, limiting the pull on Atlantic cargoes. Continental storage remains adequate for the time of year as injection continues. On the curve, NBP closed last week down roughly 9 to 10 per cent, so the recent firmness is a partial recovery within a softer trend.
Electricity
Power followed gas and the heat higher. UK day-ahead baseload settled around £99/MWh on Friday, up close to 2 per cent, with day-ahead peak near £90/MWh; morning prompt levels are materially firmer, trading around £110 to £111/MWh as the system tightens. The drivers point the same way at the short end: a continental heatwave is raising cooling demand, wind generation is weak and keeping combined-cycle gas turbines dominant in the mix, and nuclear availability is reduced, with several UK units offline and French output facing potential cooling-related restrictions from mid-week. French interconnection is helping to cover evening ramps. Further out, Winter 26 baseload settled around £98/MWh, firmer on the day but close to 4 per cent lower than a week ago, with carbon continuing to support the forward seasons.
Other Commodities
Crude is softer this morning as the risk premium eases following reported progress in the weekend talks. Brent settled around $80.57/bbl on Friday, up under 1 per cent on the day but down close to 8 per cent week-on-week, with WTI near $76.56/bbl and down almost 10 per cent over the week; soft physical differentials and a comfortable seaborne balance continue to cap rallies. Coal ARA CIF for Calendar 27 was around $113/tonne, firmer on the day but roughly 6 per cent lower week-on-week. Carbon was the standout, with EU allowances for December 2026 near €80.58/tonne, up about 4.5 per cent week-on-week, and UK allowances for December 2026 around £60.46/tonne, the UK contract continuing to trade at a discount to the EU market. In LNG, Asian JKM near $15/MMBtu and Henry Hub around $3/MMBtu both eased over the week. Sterling was little changed against the euro and softened about 1.3 per cent against the dollar, marginally lifting the cost of dollar-priced imports.