Energy Market Report - 19 June 2026
Energy markets opened higher this morning as the postponement of US-Iran talks in Switzerland, following renewed strikes between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, pushed geopolitical risk premium back into oil and gas after a week of heavy losses. Warm weather across north-west Europe and comfortable near-term supply remain the offsetting bearish forces, leaving the market finely balanced.
Natural Gas
Gas reversed higher this morning after extending a steep weekly decline into Thursday's settlement. NBP front-month had settled at 96.7 p/therm, down almost 19 per cent on the week, before firming back toward 100 p/therm at the open, while the day-ahead settled at 99.60 p/therm and Dutch TTF day-ahead eased to around 40.6 €/MWh. The sell-off had reflected strong Norwegian flows, with exit nominations holding near 299 mcm/day, and warm weather that cut UK demand to roughly 139 mcm/day. Planned maintenance at Kollsnes began today and Langeled deliveries into the UK eased, while LNG send-out was trimmed despite a robust, US-led arrivals schedule into north-west Europe. Low storage remains the key concern, with European sites around 45.6 per cent full, well below last year and 2024.
Electricity
Power moved with gas, settling sharply lower before firming this morning. The UK baseload day-ahead settled at 97.40 £/MWh, down more than 7 per cent on the day, and the curve fell some 10 to 12 per cent over the week, with Winter 26 baseload near 95.4 £/MWh. Wind averaged around 7.6 GW on Thursday and solar is well above normal, capping the prompt, but support has come from the Continent, where heatwave conditions have lifted river temperatures and curbed French nuclear output. UK nuclear availability also remains low, with units at Heysham, Hartlepool, Torness and Sizewell B offline.
Other Commodities
Brent settled at 79.85 $/bbl, broadly flat on the day but down close to 12 per cent on the week after touching three-month lows, firming this morning on the Lebanon escalation. Coal eased, with ARA CIF Calendar 27 at 111.45 $/tonne. Carbon firmed against the trend: the EUA December 26 contract rose to 80.01 €/tonne, up around 4 per cent on the week, and the UK ETS December 26 contract reached 60.04 £/tonne. Sterling slipped to 1.3202 against the dollar.