Energy Market Report - 18 June 2026
Wholesale gas and crude extended their decline after the United States and Iran signed an agreement to end their conflict, stripping the geopolitical risk premium that had supported energy markets through recent weeks. Power was more resilient, with the forward curve underpinned by firm carbon and the threat of summer heat curbing French nuclear output, even as mild, windier weather pressured the prompt.
Natural Gas
UK and continental gas eased on Wednesday as the signed accord removed war premium and forecasts pointed to warmer, windier conditions that cap demand. NBP day-ahead settled at 100.60 p/therm, down 1.70 on the session, while the front-month settled just below 100 p/therm and pressed lower again this morning towards 97 p/therm; TTF front-month slipped to around €41.9/MWh, its weakest since late April. Fundamentals remain comfortable: Norwegian exit nominations to the Continent recovered to roughly 303 mcm/day after the Kollsnes outage cleared, Langeled deliveries to Britain rose to about 38 mcm/day, UKCS output held near 96 mcm/day, and LNG sendout stayed healthy from Isle of Grain and South Hook. EU storage sat near 45 per cent in mid-June and continues to build, with forecasts pointing to around 75 per cent by the end of summer, reinforcing supply security ahead of winter.
Electricity
UK baseload day-ahead firmed on Wednesday, settling up 2.62 at 105.12 £/MWh on tighter near-term balances, though the contract has since eased towards 98 £/MWh this morning as wind generation recovers above seasonal norms and the wider complex softens. The forward curve held up far better than gas, supported by EUAs trading close to €80/tonne and by a heavy run of nuclear outages across the British fleet, with units offline at Heysham, Hartlepool, Torness and Sizewell B. The dominant risk now sits on the Continent, where rising river temperatures threaten French reactor derates and warmer weather lifts air-conditioning demand, both of which are lending support to forward power even as the prompt drifts lower.
Other Commodities
Brent crude settled near $79.55/bbl, a three-month low beneath 80 dollars, with WTI around $76.79/bbl, both down more than 14 per cent on the week as the ceasefire removed the supply-disruption premium and limited shipping began to return through the Strait of Hormuz. Coal was steady to slightly firmer, the front calendar contract near $113.75/tonne. In carbon, EUAs for December 2026 settled close to €79.78/tonne, little changed, while the UK allowance settled at £59.33/tonne, leaving the domestic scheme at a discount of around €11 once converted; firm carbon remains the main prop beneath forward power. Global LNG benchmarks eased, with Asian JKM near $15.82/MMBtu and Henry Hub firming to about $3.25/MMBtu, keeping US and Atlantic cargoes well placed to supply north-west Europe. Sterling slipped around one per cent against the dollar to $1.3291 while holding flat versus the euro at €1.1566.