Energy Market Report - 23 June 2026
Easing Middle East tensions dominated trade, with a US-Iran framework and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz unwinding the risk premium that had supported gas and crude. The softer tone ran across the forward curve and the wider commodity complex, even as a Northwest European heatwave and weak wind drove prompt power sharply higher.
Natural Gas
NBP and TTF eased on the near curve as geopolitical risk faded and forecasts pointed to temperatures well above seasonal norms, cutting heating demand. The NBP front-month settled near 99.9 p/therm and slipped to around 99.7 p/therm in early trade, with the day-ahead at 101.60 p/therm, while the TTF day-ahead held around 41.98 €/MWh. Supply is comfortable - Norwegian exit nominations near 336 mcm/day, Langeled into the UK down around 5 mcm/day to roughly 58 mcm/day with volumes partly redirected via Baltic Pipe, and UKCS receipts up to around 97 mcm/day on Easington's recovery. LNG send-out slipped to about 10 mcm/day with a cargo due at the Isle of Grain by 25 June, and with EU storage near 46 per cent and below year-ago levels, inventories remain the swing factor. The weekend incident at Ras Laffan in Qatar was contained to a domestic plant, leaving exports unaffected.
Electricity
UK power split by tenor. The day-ahead baseload jumped to £124.16/MWh and was offered around £157/MWh in early trade, driven by the heatwave, wind generation down near 4.3 GW and heat-related French nuclear curtailments including the week-long halt of the 1.3 GW Golfech-2 reactor. The UK was a net importer, with interconnectors supplying around 12 per cent of demand and France the largest source despite its own nuclear stress. Forward seasons eased in sympathy with gas, the front-month at £92.78/MWh and Winter-26 at £96.61/MWh, with constrained UK nuclear availability limiting the downside.
Other Commodities
Brent settled at $77.90/bbl, down more than three per cent on the day and over six per cent on the week, with WTI at $73.86/bbl, as the reopening of Hormuz removed supply risk. Coal ARA CIF for Cal-27 eased to $112.31/tonne. In carbon, EU allowances for December-26 firmed to €81.57/tonne, while UK allowances for the same vintage fell to £58.87/tonne, dropping below £60 after the Prime Minister signalled he would step down and widening the UK discount to the EU scheme. Asian JKM firmed to $15.86/MMBtu against ample Atlantic supply, and sterling was little changed at 1.1565 against the euro.