Energy Market Update - 22 December 2025
Markets firmed into Friday and opened steady this morning as cooler late December forecasts and small Norwegian flow dips met healthy LNG arrivals and a solid storage cushion.
Prompt indicators reflected the cooler turn and tighter balances into year end. TTF spot printed around €28.03/MWh and NBP spot at 73.25 p/therm, while NBP Jan 26 closed near 74.89 p/therm and TTF Jan 26 at €28.16/MWh. Cooler weather lifted European demand by roughly 300 GWh per day, with nominations from Norway slipping by about 7 mcm per day into Germany and the Netherlands and by around 1 mcm per day into the UK. UK system data showed comfortable opening balances supported by steady Langeled receipts and firmer UKCS output. LNG scheduling remains supportive, with multiple Atlantic cargoes due across North West Europe and two UK berthings listed through the Christmas period. Policy developments may complicate 2026 flows. Australia’s new requirement for exporters to reserve a quarter of LNG for domestic use is pushing Asian buyers, notably Japan, to seek more US volumes, increasing competition for cargoes that have recently anchored European supply.
Power tracked gas higher into Friday. UK spot baseload cleared near £78/MWh, with UK Jan 26 baseload around £85.6/MWh and Q1 26 near £79.9/MWh by the close. Wind output looks adequate overall. Continental wind is forecast above seasonal norms for much of the week, while GB sits around seasonal levels, pointing to mixed prompt outcomes as renewable swings offset colder-driven demand. Crown’s curve snapshots show two consecutive sessions of baseload gains on gas and carbon support, with demand expected to climb through late December and early January. Interconnector flows and French nuclear availability remain broadly stable, helping cap volatility when wind recovers.
Carbon extended recent strength. EUA Dec 26 traded near €87/t and UK ETS Dec 27 around £78/t, adding a floor to winter power costs. Oil was firmer in early trade despite the broader downtrend, with Brent marked close to 61 dollars per barrel and front-month settlement data around 60.5 dollars per barrel late last week. Coal stayed range bound, with API2 Cal 26 near 97 dollars per tonne.