Energy Market Update - 19 December 2025
Energy markets were steady to firmer into early trade, with prices holding a tight range as solid supply offset seasonal demand risks. Storage is lower than last year yet remains a clear cushion, and LNG schedules into North West Europe look busy. Carbon stays elevated into year end, adding a soft floor to forward power.
NBP spot printed around 70.9 pence per therm while the TTF spot was near €27.2 per MWh. Front month markers firmed modestly, with NBP Jan 2026 about 73 pence per therm and TTF Jan 2026 near €27.8 per MWh. EU storage is close to 68 per cent full after net withdrawals last week, still comfortably above mid-winter stress levels even if below last year. Norwegian nominations were broadly stable near the mid 340s mcm per day, though Åsgard remains curtailed by about 7 mcm per day. UK system balances opened orderly on stronger Langeled receipts and steady UKCS flows, with LNG send-out active from South Hook and Dragon. The North West Europe slate shows multiple US cargoes landing across Zeebrugge, Gate and UK terminals, keeping regional flexibility robust.
UK day-ahead baseload cleared about £60 per MWh, with the curve edging up alongside gas. January baseload was around £83, Q1 2026 near £79, and Summer 2026 close to £68. Forecasts point to choppy wind through late December, then a sharper drop around the turn of the year with lower temperatures, which implies periodic upside for gas-for-power when renewables dip. Interconnectors continued to stabilise margins and nuclear availability was broadly steady despite isolated reactor outages. Continental forward benchmarks were little changed overall, reinforcing the sense of a range-bound market guided by fuel and carbon.
Brent front month hovered near $59.8 per barrel. API2 coal remained close to $97 to $101 per tonne across the 2026 to 2027 strip. EUAs were around €86.5 per tonne and UK ETS near the high £70s per tonne, keeping thermal costs elevated without forcing a decisive break higher. Sterling traded near 1.34 against the US dollar and 1.14 against the euro. Overall, ample pipeline and LNG supply, mid-80s per cent carbon, and volatile wind point to continued range trading near term unless weather or offshore outages shift materially.