Energy Market Update - 23 December 2025
Markets eased as milder UK conditions and stronger wind offset a colder continental outlook. Peace headlines trimmed risk. Supply stayed comfortable and carbon firmed, keeping curves broadly range bound.
Gas benchmarks slipped. Front month NBP was near 72.5 p/therm and TTF around €27.5/MWh. The UK system opened long, helped by higher Langeled nominations and steady domestic output. Prompt gas reflected the comfort, with NBP Day-ahead close to 70.2 p/therm and TTF spot near €27.6/MWh. EU storage is close to 67 per cent after recent withdrawals. Norwegian nominations edged higher to roughly 343 mcm/day. LNG cover remained strong, with multiple US cargoes due at Gate, Zeebrugge, Dunkirk, Wilhelmshaven, South Hook and Dragon.
Power followed gas lower. Day-ahead baseload settled near £78.9/MWh as wind output improved through the trading window. Forward prices were steady, with January little changed and summer strips anchored by fuel costs. Interconnector imports from France and the Netherlands added margin cover. A Russian strike on the Odessa region caused fires and outages, and Ukrainian power imports were already elevated in November, a pattern that is likely to persist over the holidays.
Other commodities were mixed. UK carbon rose, with UKAs settling £0.95/tCO2 higher as trading thinned into the break. EUAs were steady to firm on the year-end auction pause. Oil and coal were little changed, leaving cross-commodity signals neutral for power curves.