Energy Market Update - 21 January 2026
European energy markets were mixed: gas steady-to-softer, UK power eased with stronger wind, while EU carbon fell roughly 4% amid US–EU tariff fears and milder early-February forecasts.
Natural gas traded in a tight range as short-term weather and supply signals offset each other. UK NBP day-ahead printed around 91.25 p/th, with the front-month near 93.95 p/th; Dutch TTF front-month sat close to €35.9/MWh. A late-January cold spell has supported prompt pricing, but Europe’s gas storage has now slipped below 50%, keeping attention on refill risk later in the year. Norwegian nominations eased on fresh unplanned work (Kristin), while UKCS/Barrow issues (~6 mcm/d) and reduced capacity at Norway’s Gullfaks (~5 mcm/d) trimmed pipeline flexibility. The UK gas system opened long and remains well supplied by LNG and stable Langeled receipts.
UK power largely followed gas but was cushioned by stronger renewables. Day-ahead baseload was about £91.7/MWh, while the UK baseload front-month traded near £99/MWh. Wind output rebounded sharply - averaging ~18.8 GW (≈46% of the GB stack) - which curbed CCGT burn; at the same time, GB imports through interconnectors dipped versus the prior day. Across the curve, losses in carbon allowances remained a dominant driver for power, softening near-term gains.
Other commodities extended recent moves. European carbon continued its correction on Tuesday, falling by almost 4% session-on-session, with EUA Dec-26 around €85/t and the UK ETS near £64/t by yesterday’s open. The pullback reflects fears of a US–EU tariff spat as President Trump’s push over Greenland sovereignty keeps tensions elevated; markets also watched today’s Davos remarks for any further trade signals. Brent hovered near $64.9/bbl and API2 coal (Cal-27) around $98.7/t. Near-term weather remains mixed: UK temperatures are still forecast to dip below seasonal norms into the weekend, while Germany has already turned colder-than-average and is expected to average roughly 4.3 °C below seasonal next week, tempering some of the carbon-led bearishness.