Energy Market Update - 22 January 2026
Gas prices jumped sharply as unplanned Norwegian outages tightened supply, while freezing weather supported a broader global gas rally. Power was mixed on stronger wind, but forwards rose with gas and carbon.
Prompt UK gas strengthened through the session, with NBP day-ahead settling at 105.00p/therm, up almost 14p. Unplanned outages at Gullfaks and Kristin cut Norwegian supply by 10mcm/day in total, leaving flows at 332.5mcm/day. EU storage remained a key support, sitting at 48.36% full (as of 20 January) amid brisk withdrawals. The UK opened 2mcm/day short this morning, though LNG nominations are steady at about 71mcm/day and twelve cargoes are due within a fortnight. Curve prices also surged on colder early-February forecasts, elevated storage draws and fund repositioning, while Henry Hub hit its highest since 2022 on freeze-off risk and JKM firmed despite comfortable Asian stocks.
UK day-ahead power eased despite firmer gas, with baseload down to £88.42/MWh as above-normal wind and improved weekend forecasts reduced gas-for-power burn to around 31mcm/day; peak prices also softened on lower residual load and adequate interconnector availability. Further out, contracts rose with fuel and carbon, with front-month baseload up nearly £7/MWh. Nuclear constraints remain a sensitivity: Torness-2 is offline from 20 January for a planned 79-day outage and Heysham units have a mix of planned and unplanned work, leaving the prompt more exposed if wind drops or temperatures fall.
Elsewhere, Brent edged up to $65.24/bbl but stayed rangebound as supply-demand concerns persist even as some trade risk eased. Carbon rallied, with EUAs at €87.06/tonne and UKAs at £67.43/tonne, as the gas-led move lifted expectations for thermal generation and compliance demand. Globally, cold weather continued to drive gas strength: US futures posted a weekly gain above 70%, with TTF up around 40% year-to-date and JKM at its highest since late November. In the near term, the market is watching Norway for relief, with Kristin expected back 22 January and Gullfaks 26 January, while Chinese customs data pointing to record December Russian LNG imports adds to the broader LNG demand narrative.