Energy Market Update - 20 January 2026
Gas and power steadied after Monday’s correction. Colder runs and firm Norwegian and LNG flows balanced the picture. UK system opened long, with rising wind set to curb gas-for-power.
Front contracts were mixed. NBP February settled at 91.94 p per therm on Monday and was indicated around 93 to 94 p this morning. TTF front month hovered near 36 to 37 €/MWh. Weather models shifted a touch colder after milder runs, while the UK system opened roughly 20 mcm long. Norwegian exit nominations were near 336 to 337 mcm per day, with a small unplanned curtailment at Gullfaks trimming around 5 mcm per day. LNG remains a stabiliser. UK send-out was nominated near 96 mcm per day and twelve cargoes are due over the next fortnight, alongside strong continental receipts. EU storage stood just under half full as of 18 January, reflecting seasonal draw. Trade rhetoric added noise, with renewed US tariff threats and early talk of EU countermeasures noted by market participants.
Prompt UK baseload eased on Monday then ticked up into early trade, with Day-Ahead around £98/MWh and the front month near £103/MWh. The near curve followed gas, though rising wind should reduce CCGT burn through the week, keeping the prompt sensitive to hourly profiles. Interconnector flows provided margin cover, while domestic nuclear availability remained constrained by planned and unplanned outages but broadly stable. Continental benchmarks were steady to slightly firmer, with German February near €117 to €118/MWh and French February near €96/MWh by the latest indications.
Carbon softened with the weather shift. EUA Dec-26 traded around €86 to €88 per tonne and UK ETS Dec-26 near £68 per tonne. Brent was little changed around $64 per barrel. API2 coal Cal-27 held close to $98 per tonne. Currency moves were modest, with sterling steady against the euro. Policy risk remains a background factor, but with comfortable LNG schedules and improving Norwegian availability the complex retains a range-bound tone for now.