Energy Market Update - 21 August 2025
Gas and power firmed as lower wind, reduced Norwegian flows and thin LNG send-out tightened near-term balances; injections continued; geopolitics stayed quiet but kept a small risk premium in prices.
Natural gas moved higher. UK NBP day-ahead settled at 80.20 p/therm, with the Sep-25 contract trading around 80–81 p/therm this morning, while TTF spot hovered near €31.9/MWh and the front month around €32.7/MWh. UK system demand eased to about 129 mcm/day from 141 mcm/day yesterday, but supply also dipped: Norwegian receipts into the UK slipped to ~60 mcm/day, with Langeled near 54 mcm/day and Vesterled/FLAGS around 8 mcm/day. LNG send-out remained light at roughly 8 mcm/day (South Hook ~5 mcm/day, Isle of Grain at boil-off, Dragon idle) and no prompt UK cargoes are due. Gas-for-power demand for day-ahead was steady near 45 mcm/day as wind output stayed below normal, though forecasts show a recovery from 23–28 August. On storage, EU inventories are about 75.9 bcm; at the current pace, stocks could reach 90% in roughly 54 days. Attention remains on late-August/September Norwegian maintenance at Langeled and SEGAL, which poses upside risk if extended.
Power tracked gas. UK day-ahead baseload closed at £80.00/MWh. Near-curve baseload edged up, with Sep-25 at £74.40/MWh, Q4-25 at £79.99/MWh and Q1-26 at £83.80/MWh. Lower wind lifted CCGT expectations, while ongoing nuclear outages continued to support thermal generation margins—Hartlepool and Heysham units remain partly or fully offline, with additional planned work into late August and September. Interconnector flows with Belgium and the Netherlands show the UK continuing to export on gas, while power links were broadly stable. Across Europe, day-ahead baseload diverged, with France low around €32.7/MWh amid strong availability, versus Germany near €92.7/MWh and the Netherlands ~€86.3/MWh, widening regional spreads.
Other commodities were mixed to firmer. Brent front-month rose to $66.84/bbl. European carbon nudged up, with EUA Dec-25 at €71.29/tonne; the UK ETS Dec-25 was around £50.83/tonne. Coal strengthened, with API2 Cal-26 at $108.74/tonne. In currencies, sterling traded near £/€ 1.1567. These moves, alongside slightly cooler near-term temperatures and softer renewables, helped reinforce gas and power pricing across the curve.