Energy Market Update - 20 August 2025
Gas and power were rangebound. Slightly cooler forecasts, lower wind and steady Norwegian flows nudged UK gas-for-power demand higher, while geopolitics around mooted Russia-Ukraine talks kept a mild risk premium.
Natural gas traded sideways to slightly firmer. UK NBP day-ahead settled at 76.40 p/therm, with the NBP Sep-25 contract near 76.8–77.1 p/therm and TTF spot around €30.7/MWh. The UK system opened close to balance: demand was forecast near 131 mcm/day, below the seasonal norm (~147 mcm/day). Supply was comfortable, led by ~62 mcm/day of Norwegian receipts via Langeled, modest UKCS output and thin LNG send-out (~8 mcm/day) with South Hook around 5 mcm/day, Isle of Grain on boil-off and Dragon idle. Gas-for-power demand rose to roughly 42 mcm/day as wind eased. Forward attention stays on late-August maintenance on Norwegian infrastructure and political headlines: talk of US-Russia-Ukraine meetings has slipped, while warnings of tougher measures if no progress is made keep sentiment cautious.
Power followed gas. UK day-ahead baseload closed at £77.63/MWh, with near-curve baseload little changed. Softer wind output lifted CCGT expectations, while ongoing nuclear unavailability (notably across Hartlepool and Heysham units, among others) continued to underpin thermal generation. Interconnector flows with France, Belgium and the Netherlands were broadly steady, helping balance the system despite lower renewables.
Other commodities were mixed. Brent front-month eased to $65.79/bbl. European carbon softened, with EUA Dec-25 at €71.16/tonne and UK ETS Dec-25 at £50.58/tonne. Coal firmed, with API2 Cal-26 around $107.76/tonne. Sterling traded near £/€ 1.157.