Energy Market Update - 19 August 2025
Gas and power nudged higher after early weakness, supported by geopolitics and looming Norwegian maintenance. Storage progress and steady LNG tempered gains. Oil, coal and carbon firmed slightly.
Natural gas recovered modestly. The UK NBP day-ahead settled at 76.10p/therm, with September at 76.97p/therm and Q4-25 at 82.22p/therm. On the Continent, TTF spot was around €30.7/MWh, with front-month near €31–32/MWh. UK fundamentals were comfortable: system demand eased to roughly 127mcm/day, UKCS output hovered near 67mcm/day and imports via Langeled were about 54mcm/day, complemented by small volumes on Vesterled/FLAGS. Exports via IUK and BBL remained sizeable, while LNG send-out held around 8mcm/day, primarily from South Hook and boil-off at Isle of Grain. European inventories continued to build toward the 70% area. Traders also looked ahead to late-August Norwegian works that could temporarily remove as much as 125mcm/day of capacity, and to diplomatic developments following talks between US and European leaders and Ukraine, which kept a modest risk premium in near-curve pricing.
UK power tracked gas. Day-ahead baseload settled at £78.07/MWh and day-ahead peak at £76.57/MWh. Forward prices were steady to slightly firmer, with September around £73–74/MWh, Q4-25 near £78–79/MWh and Winter-25 close to £80/MWh. Lower wind output early in the week lifted gas-for-power requirements (day-ahead gas burn estimated in the mid-30s mcm/day), though forecasts point to stronger renewables later this month. Interconnector imports from France, Belgium and the Netherlands continued to balance the system. Nuclear availability remained constrained by persistent outages at Hartlepool and Heysham units, keeping CCGT prominent in the generation mix.
Elsewhere in the complex, Brent crude edged up to $66.60/bbl, coal (API2 Cal-26) firmed to $105.83/tonne, and European carbon strengthened, with EUA Dec-25 at €71.82/tonne and UK ETS Dec-25 at £51.08/tonne. LNG scheduling remained active across North-West Europe with multiple US cargoes due over the coming days, offsetting an unplanned outage at the Hammerfest export plant. Currency moves were limited, with sterling around 1.158 against the euro and 1.350 against the dollar.