Energy Market Update - 18 August 2025
Gas and power were softer into the weekend on cooler weather and ample supply; early trading today is steadier, with modest upside on the curve amid light liquidity.
Natural gas eased on Friday as demand dipped and supply stayed healthy. UK NBP day-ahead settled at 75.10p/therm, with the September NBP contract at 76.45p/therm and Q4-25 at 81.96p/therm. On the Continent, front-month TTF traded around €31/MWh. Storage continues to build, with EU inventories in the low-to-mid-70s percent range and the UK around the low-80s. UK system fundamentals are comfortable: weekend demand was ~137 mcm/day, UKCS output rose to ~72 mcm/day, and the UK remained a net exporter via IUK and BBL. LNG send-out is steady near 8–9 mcm/day, mainly from South Hook, while Isle of Grain is on boil-off and Dragon is offline. Norwegian receipts into Britain are close to 58–60 mcm/day through Langeled, with a small unplanned cut at Troll (~5 mcm/day). Forecast higher wind speeds are set to trim gas-for-power by around 10 mcm/day in the short term.
UK power tracked gas lower but remains well supported by generation constraints. Day-ahead baseload closed at £78.41/MWh on Friday; day-ahead peak was £76.41/MWh. Forward baseload is slightly firmer in early trading, with September near £73/MWh, Q4-25 around £79/MWh and Winter-25 close to £80/MWh. Wind output is expected to increase this week before easing again, while UK nuclear availability remains limited by ongoing outages at Hartlepool, Heysham and Torness. Interconnector imports from France, Belgium and the Netherlands continue to help balance the system. Continental prices also softened into the weekend, with notable weakness in German and French front-month contracts as milder temperatures reduced cooling load.
In the wider complex, crude remains under pressure and carbon eased. Brent front-month was last around $65.85/bbl, while API2 coal for 2026 traded near $105.35/tonne. EU carbon allowances slipped to about €70.68/tonne and the UK ETS to roughly £50.80/tonne. Currency moves were modest, with sterling around 1.1585 against the euro and 1.3551 against the dollar. LNG arrivals into Northwest Europe remain frequent through the second half of August, helping to anchor regional gas balances despite intermittent Norwegian maintenance later in the month.