Energy Market Update - 15 August 2025
Gas eased as supply stayed comfortable and storage progressed, while power softened on stronger renewables. Focus turned to geopolitics and late-August Norwegian maintenance that could tighten regional flows.
Natural gas prices drifted lower on the prompt and near curve. UK NBP day-ahead settled at 78.17p/therm, with the Dutch TTF spot around €31.86/MWh. Month-ahead contracts also slipped versus the prior session. Fundamentals were benign: UK system demand fell to roughly 129 mcm/day, linepack rebuilt, and the UK remained a net exporter to the Continent. Norwegian pipeline deliveries into Britain steadied near 61 mcm/day via Langeled, while LNG send-out was nominated close to 8 mcm/day, led by South Hook. Europe-wide storage hovered around 70% full. Short-term supply risks were limited after nominations recovered from the prior day’s unplanned curtailments at Kollsnes, Nybro and SEGAL, though delays at Ormen Lange persisted. Further out, intermittent capacity limits at Easington and the concurrent Nyhamna shutdown on 27 August keep late-month tightening risks in view. Geopolitically, markets watched the scheduled US–Russia talks; any policy signals come against a backdrop of EU rules that restrict a return of Russian pipeline gas.
Power followed gas lower on the prompt, with the UK day-ahead baseload at £81.04/MWh. Higher wind output across parts of Europe eased thermal generation, but UK wind remained near or below seasonal norms, and gas-for-power requirements are projected to rise into the weekend. On the curve, UK baseload showed small early upticks in thin trade: September around the mid-£70s/MWh, Q4-25 near £80/MWh, and Winter-25 close to £82/MWh. Interconnector imports from France, Belgium and the Netherlands continued to balance the system. Nuclear availability stayed constrained by extended outages at Hartlepool, Torness and Heysham, limiting baseload flexibility.
Other commodities were mixed to softer. Brent crude was about $66.84/bbl. European coal (API2 Cal-26) eased to $105.99/tonne. EU carbon allowances slipped to €70.96/tonne, while UK ETS contracts were near £51.15/tonne. In global gas benchmarks, JKM month-ahead edged down to roughly $11.4/MMBtu and Henry Hub spot traded around $2.8/MMBtu, underscoring a well-supplied backdrop.