Energy Market Update - 22 August 2025
Gas and power firmed. Tighter Norwegian flows, thin LNG send-out and a technical rebound supported prices, while Ukrainian infrastructure attacks and shifting French nuclear availability shaped regional risk.
Natural gas edged higher across hubs. UK NBP day-ahead settled at 82.70 p/therm, with the Sep-25 contract trading around the mid-83s. Dutch TTF spot was near €33.15/MWh and front-month around €33–34/MWh. Fundamentals tightened: UK demand hovered near 119–127 mcm/day this morning after 126.98 mcm/day yesterday, while Norwegian receipts eased as Langeled nominations slipped from ~49–50 mcm/day and are set to reduce further as late-August and September maintenance ramps up. UKCS output remained steady, but LNG send-out stayed light at roughly 8 mcm/day (South Hook ~5 mcm/day; Isle of Grain at boil-off; Dragon inactive) and no prompt cargoes are indicated for UK terminals. Gas-for-power demand for day-ahead was ~39 mcm/day, down on the day as wind is expected to improve into 23–28 August, but intermittent low output still supports prompt. Sentiment was also buoyed by a resolved feed-gas issue at Freeport earlier in the week and a clear bounce from previously tested support levels; geopolitically, fresh strikes on Ukrainian gas infrastructure and ongoing, but quiet, diplomatic efforts sustained a modest risk premium.
Power followed gas higher. UK day-ahead baseload closed at £82.20/MWh, with near-curve baseload firmer: Sep-25 at £77.13/MWh, Q4-25 at £81.79/MWh and Q1-26 at £86.43/MWh. Lower renewable output mid-week lifted CCGT expectations, compounded by continuing nuclear unavailability (notably Hartlepool and Heysham units), although French nuclear availability is rising and expected to exceed 45 GW, easing continental tightness. Interconnectors were broadly stable. Across Europe, day-ahead baseload remained divergent: France around €50–51/MWh, Germany near €73–74/MWh and the Netherlands in the mid-€80s, reflecting differing generation mixes and availability.
Other commodities were mixed. Brent front-month traded around $67.67/bbl. European carbon firmed, with EUA Dec-25 near €72.6/tonne; the UK ETS Dec-25 was about £52.1/tonne. Coal (API2 Cal-26) was close to $107.5/tonne. In global gas benchmarks, JKM M+1 was ~$11.44/MMBtu versus Henry Hub near $2.8–2.9/MMBtu. Sterling held around £/€ 1.1555. These moves, alongside anticipated Norwegian outages and a still-thin LNG schedule into North-West Europe, helped underpin the broader energy complex.