Energy Market Report - 21 April 2026
European wholesale energy markets reversed part of Monday's sharp gains this morning as traders weighed cautious optimism around US-Iran talks in Pakistan against continued tightness in Norwegian gas supply and a deteriorating UK wind outlook. Oil markets steadied near $95/bbl after surging on the weekend closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with the wider commodity complex remaining sensitive to developments ahead of Wednesday's ceasefire expiry.
Natural Gas
The NBP front month settled at 101.31 p/therm yesterday, up around 4.20 p/therm on Friday's close, as the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend and a sharp tightening of Norwegian supply combined to lift the curve, with the equivalent TTF M+1 settling at 40.29 €/MWh. Total Norwegian Continental Shelf flows dropped to 244 mcm/day this morning, the lowest of 2026, with planned maintenance at Troll removing 92.9 mcm/day and Langeled deliveries to the UK collapsing to around 4 mcm/day. Despite this, the UK system opened balanced with demand at 150 mcm/day, 47 mcm below seasonal norm, helped by mild weather and a heavy LNG arrival schedule into north-west Europe with four cargoes due today at Fos, Zeebrugge, Eemshaven and Wilhelmshaven. EU storage stands at 30.46 per cent full, providing a structural floor under forward prices, while the JKM-TTF spread continues to pull cargoes towards Asia.
Electricity
The UK day-ahead baseload settled at £80.06/MWh on Monday with the front month at £84.16/MWh, both up modestly on Friday's close, while Win-26 closed at £89.10/MWh and Cal-27 at £76.54/MWh. The market firmed further into this morning's session with the front month indicated near £85.50/MWh as wind generation forecasts continued to deteriorate, with output set to fall 4-5 m/s below seasonal norm at its worst on Saturday and remain subdued for the balance of the two-week forecast. The 2GW IFA interconnector with France has been offline since Monday morning, removing a key source of import flexibility during the weak wind period, although a strong solar outlook running well above seasonal norm into early next week provides some offset. UK nuclear availability remains constrained, with substantial planned and unplanned outages at Heysham and Torness reducing nameplate capacity by over 1.1 GW, sustaining the call on CCGT plant and supporting clean spark spreads.
Other Commodities
Brent crude jumped 5.6 per cent on Monday to $95.48/bbl following the weekend closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the US Central Command seizure of an Iranian-flagged vessel, with WTI rising 6.87 per cent to $89.61/bbl. Prices have since stabilised in a $93-96/bbl range as markets await US-Iran talks involving the Vice President in Pakistan, ahead of Wednesday's ceasefire deadline. Coal ARA CIF Cal-27 eased 1.31 per cent to $108.80/tonne with continental thermal demand subdued by mild weather, while carbon weakened despite the gas rally, with EUA Dec-26 down 1.72 per cent to €76.13/tonne and UK ETS Dec-26 down 1.62 per cent to £50.86/tonne. JKM remained well bid at $15.24/MMBtu, holding a healthy premium over TTF at $13.90/MMBtu and continuing to pull Atlantic basin cargoes east. Sterling held firm at 1.3532 against the dollar and 1.1488 against the euro.