Energy Market Report - 20 April 2026
Wholesale gas and power prices have rebounded this morning, unwinding most of Friday's sharp sell-off after Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend following the US navy's seizure of an Iranian cargo vessel. The wider commodity complex has followed suit, with Brent crude recovering around 6 per cent, UK carbon extending its recent run, and peace talks scheduled for Islamabad today remaining in doubt.
Natural Gas
NBP and TTF closed Friday sharply lower as reports of a temporary Strait of Hormuz reopening and an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire prompted the unwinding of the Middle East risk premium that had built up since late February. NBP front month May-26 settled at 97.11p/therm, down 9.19p on the day, with Winter 26 at 99.20p/therm and Summer 27 at 77.99p/therm. TTF Winter 26 settled at 38.47 €/MWh, down 7.47 per cent, and continental hubs moved in sympathy. Weekend developments have reversed the tone, with NBP front month indicated around 103p/therm this morning after Iran closed the Strait again in response to the US seizing an Iranian cargo vessel. Physical balances remain comfortable on the day: the UK system opened 16 mcm/day long with Langeled flows up 7 mcm/day to 41.50 mcm/day following the end of Asgard maintenance, and LNG send-out nominations rose around 5 mcm/day with Dragon ramping from zero to 9.20 mcm/day. The backdrop tightens later this week, with planned maintenance at Troll due to curtail 97.5 mcm/day of Norwegian capacity. Pan-European storage stands at 30.20 per cent or 342 TWh, approximately 6 per cent below the equivalent point last year, and Atlantic basin pricing remains well supported with JKM M+1 at $15.00/MMBtu keeping Asian competition for US cargoes firm.
Electricity
UK baseload tracked gas lower on Friday but with smaller moves given concurrent carbon strength. Day-ahead baseload settled at £79.41/MWh, front month May-26 at £82.28/MWh and Winter 26 at £87.89/MWh, down £4.42 on the day. Day-ahead peak settled at £63.35/MWh, with Winter 26 peak at £105.42/MWh reflecting the cost of CCGT cover through evening ramps. Friday's session saw wind output fall more than 32 per cent day on day, lifting CCGT offtake by over 25 per cent, and this morning UK Base front month is indicated near £88/MWh, following gas, oil and carbon higher. The forward outlook is fundamentally supportive: UK temperatures are forecast slightly below seasonal norm this week with wind speeds holding below norm on most days, only improving on Wednesday and weakening to 3-4 m/s below norm next weekend. Nuclear availability is constrained, with Heysham 1-1 on a 130-day planned outage from 8 April, Heysham 1-2 on extended unplanned stop, and Torness-2 offline through mid-April.
Other Commodities
Brent M+1 settled at $90.38/bbl on Friday, down 9.07 per cent on the day and 5.06 per cent on the week, as the Strait reopening headlines triggered heavy unwinding of the geopolitical premium that had lifted the contract above $118/bbl earlier in April. WTI fell 11.45 per cent to $83.85/bbl. This morning Brent is trading around $95.80/bbl, recovering approximately 6 per cent on the weekend re-closure and vessel seizure. Coal ARA CIF Cal 27 settled at $110.25/tonne, down 2.75 per cent, with the back end of the curve holding near $109/tonne. Carbon moved counter to the wider risk-off tone: EUA Dec 26 added €2.47 to settle at €77.46/tonne, up 3.29 per cent on the day and 6.34 per cent on the week, while UK ETS Dec 26 settled at £51.70/tonne, up 2.47 per cent on the day and 18.74 per cent on the week as traders continued to reprice UKAs following confirmation that the Carbon Price Support on fossil-fuel generation will be phased out from April 2028. LNG benchmarks eased in line with European gas, with JKM M+1 down 8.49 per cent to $15.00/MMBtu and LNG NWE M+1 at $14.35/MMBtu. Sterling softened marginally to 1.1472 against the euro.