Energy Market Report - 17 April 2026
Risk premium remained the dominant influence across UK wholesale markets yesterday, with firmer settlements across gas, power, crude and carbon driven by Middle East tensions, Norwegian supply losses and a material UK policy shift on carbon. Friday's session has opened with a softer front end as reports of a 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire filter through, though further-out contracts are holding firm on unresolved supply uncertainty.
Natural Gas
UK gas prices pushed higher on Thursday as geopolitical risk and Norwegian supply constraints reinforced a bullish tone. NBP day-ahead settled at 105.50p/therm, Winter 26 at 107.01p/therm (up 3.12p) and Summer 27 at 82.39p/therm. Planned spring maintenance on the Norwegian Continental Shelf cut exit nominations to 311 mcm/day, the lowest since late February, with a further 5.4 mcm/day lost to an unplanned outage at Norne. Aggregate EU storage has slipped into net withdrawal, ending an 11-day injection run, with stocks at around 29.75 per cent full - roughly 6 percentage points below this point last year. Netherlands inventories stand out at just 7 per cent full, highlighting how much work remains before next winter. Continental hubs moved in tandem, with TTF, THE and PEG pricing in a similar range on a comparable basis. Into Friday the prompt has eased on ceasefire reports and scheduled US-Iran talks at the weekend, with Winter 26 indicated around 106.60p/therm, though Atlantic basin pricing remains well supported by Asian competition for US cargoes with JKM M+1 at $16.13/MMBtu.
Electricity
UK baseload power followed gas higher on Thursday, with the day-ahead settling at £84.49/MWh and Winter 26 at £92.31/MWh, up £3.26 on the day. Peak contracts saw firmer gains, with Winter 26 peak closing at £109.75/MWh, reflecting the cost of CCGT capacity through evening ramps alongside the sharp repricing of UK carbon allowances. Wind generation has provided meaningful support through the week, averaging around 12 GW and running roughly 20 per cent above seasonal norms, which has capped prompt pricing despite the firmer gas and carbon complex. Nuclear availability remains patchy, with Torness-2 offline on planned works and ongoing unplanned outages at Heysham 1 and Heysham 2 reducing aggregate output by several hundred MW. Friday morning indicatives are broadly steady, with Summer 27 firming 50 pence to £73.00/MWh. Cooler temperatures and softer wind forecasts across most of the continent next week, combined with the UK ETS re-rating, should keep a floor under forward peak pricing even as prompt values ease on geopolitical headlines.
Other Commodities
Crude rallied sharply on Thursday, with Brent M+1 settling at $99.39/bbl, up 4.70 per cent, and WTI at $94.69/bbl. Prices pushed towards the $100/bbl handle as the market repriced shipping risk through the Strait of Hormuz, though Friday has seen a modest pullback after the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire took effect and further US-Iran progress is signalled at the weekend. Coal ARA CIF was comparatively muted, with Cal 27 at $113.36/tonne and the back end of the curve holding near $110/tonne. Carbon was the standout mover: EUA Dec 26 added €0.84 to settle at €74.99/tonne, tracking wider energy strength and cooler forecasts, while UK ETS Dec 26 jumped £3.53 to £50.44/tonne, a rise of more than 7 per cent in a single session, following confirmation that the £18/tonne UK Carbon Price Support on fossil-fuel generation will be abolished from April 2028. Traders are repricing UK allowances on the view that the UK ETS will need to do more of the work in setting the effective carbon cost once the CPS top-up is withdrawn. The UKA-EUA spread narrowed on the move, though UKAs still trade at a discount to EUAs in sterling-equivalent terms.