Energy Market Report - 16 April 2026
Gas and power markets fell sharply on Wednesday as the US-Iran ceasefire continued to hold and mild temperatures suppressed demand. A partial recovery emerged on Thursday morning as Norwegian maintenance tightened prompt supply.
Natural Gas
NBP day-ahead settled at around 102.90p/therm on Wednesday - down more than 5p/therm on the day - as geopolitical risk premium continued to unwind following the sustained US-Iran ceasefire. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted by security concerns and rising insurance costs, but the absence of escalation has firmly shifted sentiment to the bearish side. Mild weather across north-west Europe kept the UK system long for much of the session, allowing storage injection and increased exports to the Netherlands. Thursday morning saw prompt contracts lift 2-3p/therm after Langeled nominations dropped sharply overnight from around 65.6 mcm/day to 47 mcm/day, driven by increased Troll maintenance and works at the Kollsnes terminal. Planned maintenance on Vesterled begins tomorrow, removing roughly 13 mcm/day of capacity for a week, with total offline volumes set to more than double by Monday. Further along the curve, front winter gas is down around 9% on a week-on-week basis, with Winter 26 assessed near 105p/therm and Summer 27 around 81p/therm. EU storage stands at approximately 29.5% following modest net injections.
Electricity
UK power weakened alongside gas, with May-26 baseload settling at £84.72/MWh and Winter 26 at £89.05/MWh - both down around 2-3% on the day. Wind generation was the dominant driver, doubling from 8.9GW on Tuesday to 17.8GW on Wednesday and averaging roughly 12GW for the week, around 18% above seasonal norms. The surge in renewable output displaced significant CCGT running and eased gas-for-power demand. Thursday morning saw modest firming, with May-26 baseload offered around £88/MWh and Winter 26 near £90-92/MWh, reflecting the partial gas recovery. Nuclear availability remains under pressure - Torness Unit 1 entered a planned six-day outage from today, while Heysham 1 and 2 carry planned and unplanned reductions totalling over 1.4GW of lost capacity. German wind generation has been notably weak this week at just 5GW against a seasonal norm roughly 2.5GW higher, keeping continental power prices better supported than those in the UK.
Other Commodities
Brent crude settled at $94.93/bbl, marginally firmer but still contained below $100, with reports of some vessels passing through the US blockade on the Strait of Hormuz raising hopes of a gradually easing supply picture. Coal ARA CIF continued to soften, with Calendar 27 at $112.49/tonne - down nearly 4% on the week. Carbon was mixed: EUA December 2026 fell €0.72 to €74.15/tonne, while UK ETS December 2026 edged up to £46.91/tonne. On a weekly basis both benchmarks are firmer - EUAs up around 3.5% and UKAs around 11% - reflecting a recovery from earlier April lows rather than any fresh policy catalyst.
Outlook
The near-term picture is shaped by competing forces. Mild weather and strong wind should keep demand soft through the end of this week, but a cooler spell forecast for early next week and the step-up in Norwegian maintenance provide potential support for prompt pricing. The market remains headline-driven, with progress on US-Iran negotiations the key catalyst for further direction. Nuclear constraints at Heysham and Torness will limit firm generation capacity into May, adding to sensitivity around any sustained drop in renewable output.