Energy Market Report - 22 April 2026
European gas markets rallied through yesterday's session as the US-Iran ceasefire deadline approached without a credible path to a permanent agreement, before steadying overnight when Washington extended the ceasefire indefinitely. Power tracked gas higher on the forward curve while crude oil pushed back above 99 $/bbl on reports of vessel seizures in the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the wider commodity complex caught between geopolitical relief and ongoing supply-side risk.
Natural Gas
NBP day-ahead settled 5.25 p/therm higher at 106.50 p/therm yesterday with the front of the curve adding 3 to 4 p/therm, supported by reduced Norwegian flows of around 245 mcm/day, weak wind generation across Northwest Europe and the approaching ceasefire deadline. TTF settled at the equivalent of 108.65 p/therm. This morning the picture has steadied with the ceasefire extended indefinitely overnight, though the US naval blockade and force deployments remain active. Norwegian total exit nominations have recovered to 302.9 mcm/day as Troll curtailment was reduced to 20.9 mcm/day, and Langeled flows are up 36 mcm/day. The UK system opened around 23 mcm/day long with total demand at 139.35 mcm/day, well below seasonal norm. EU storage stood at 30.4 per cent full at the end of 20 April with injections above recent averages, though UK sites including Rough at zero per cent and Hornsea at 13 per cent leave the domestic position tight ahead of the summer build. JKM front month edged up to 15.81 $/MMBtu against soft Asian demand, with ten LNG cargoes scheduled into Northwest European terminals between 22 and 25 April.
Electricity
UK day-ahead baseload settled lower at 78.14 £/MWh yesterday and day-ahead peak at 61.94 £/MWh as renewables met more than 58 per cent of system demand and pushed midday system sell prices to -83.99 £/MWh. The forward curve, however, tracked gas firmly higher with May-26 baseload adding 3.74 £/MWh to 87.90 £/MWh, Win-26 baseload reaching 90.94 £/MWh and Win-26 peak at 108.25 £/MWh. This morning the curve has extended its move as wind speeds are forecast to fall 4 to 5 m/s below seasonal norm into Saturday and remain suppressed through the rest of April, lifting expected gas-for-power demand by around 15 mcm/day. UK solar is forecast well above seasonal norm into early next week, providing midday cover. Nuclear availability remains constrained with Torness 2 fully offline since January and the Heysham units carrying a mix of planned and unplanned reductions, with a further round of planned outages stacking from early May.
Other Commodities
Brent settled 3.00 $/bbl higher at 98.48 $/bbl as the geopolitical bid carried through the oil complex, with WTI at 89.67 $/bbl, and Brent has extended to around 99.60 $/bbl this morning on reports of vessel seizures in the Strait of Hormuz by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Coal ARA CIF Cal-27 firmed 2.73 $/tonne to 111.54 $/tonne, with the curve essentially flat across Cal-28 at 111.60 $/tonne and Cal-29 at 111.20 $/tonne. Carbon eased against the broader bullish tone, with EUA Dec-26 down 0.43 €/tonne to 75.70 €/tonne and UKAs down 1.73 £/tonne to 49.13 £/tonne, widening the UKA-EUA discount modestly. Sterling held flat against the euro at 1.1490 and softened against the dollar to 1.3506.