Energy Market Update - 17 October 2025
Gas and power rose as UK interconnector limits, firmer carbon and French LNG strikes lifted risk, despite mild weather and healthy European stocks.
UK NBP contracts gained through Thursday’s session. Support came from renewed supply concerns and news that withdrawals have started at key European storage sites, including Germany, earlier than last year. Market participants also flagged the risk of colder snaps and the chance that Norwegian maintenance could be extended. Overall fundamentals remain comfortable, but these factors kept a small premium in the near curve.
Power moved higher along the curve. Near-curve baseload increased by more than £1/MWh. Sparks improved as interconnector capacity to France was reduced, which tightened imports during trading. The 2 GW IFA1 link is restricted to 0.5 GW until 17 October, then to 1.5 GW until 15 January 2026. UK Carbon rose by almost £1/tCO₂ session on session, adding to thermal costs and helping lifts across the curve.
Strikes in French industry continued to disrupt energy operations. LNG production at Fos Cavaou has been affected, with action now expected to end on 21 October, one week later than planned. This has trimmed continental flexibility and added to the cautious tone.
Other commodities were mixed. Carbon strengthened in the UK, reinforcing the firmer power curve. Broader oil market signals were steady. LNG supply into North West Europe remains active, helping to balance the system even as weather and interconnector constraints drive short-term volatility.