Energy Markets Weekly: Norwegian Tightness and Geopolitical Friction Bolster June Curves
UK and continental energy markets have rebounded significantly this week, with front-month gas surging above 84p/therm. Power prices rose in tandem, with baseload contracts reversing earlier losses as gas-for-power demand increased, despite seasonally mild weather.
Energy Markets Weekly: Norwegian Outages, Soft Weather, and Political Uncertainty Stir Volatility
UK and European gas markets climbed further into bullish territory this week, as persistent Norwegian outages constrained supply and LNG inflows appeared insufficient to fully compensate. NBP front-month prices surged to 88.50p/therm, while UK baseload Day-Ahead power moved significantly higher to £76.71/MWh, bolstered by low wind forecasts early in the week and cooling demand risks across southern Europe.
Energy Markets Weekly: Norwegian Flows Stabilise, but Storage and Sanctions Dominate Outlook
UK and continental energy markets ended the week with moderate bearish retracements. NBP Day-Ahead fell to 85.80p/therm as Norwegian volumes returned following extensive planned maintenance at Kollsnes and Troll. UK baseload prices, however, edged higher on Friday as wind generation output dipped again and cooling demand remains uncertain amid continued below-normal temperatures.
Energy Markets Weekly: EU Roadmap and Norwegian Maintenance Tighten Outlook
UK and European energy markets surged at the start of May as geopolitical policies and tighter supply conditions overrode softer seasonal demand. Natural gas and power prices posted sharp gains, buoyed by unplanned Norwegian outages, colder-than-average temperatures, and the European Commission’s draft legislation to ban Russian gas imports by end-2025. The gas prompt hit 83.5p/therm while UK baseload surged over 60% week-on-week, closing at £83.71/MWh.
Energy Markets Weekly: Storage Creep and the Ukraine Minerals Deal Support Prices
After a bearish start to the week driven by above-average temperatures and solid supply fundamentals, UK and European gas and power markets have retraced some losses as geopolitical developments — particularly a US-Ukraine minerals agreement — add back premium to the forward curves.
Energy Markets Weekly: Storage Builds Steady as Policy Uncertainty and Weather Shape Outlook
UK and continental energy markets moved lower over the past week, driven by a mix of steady physical supply, weak Asian LNG demand, and rising European temperatures.
Energy Markets Weekly: Trade Tensions and EU Storage Reforms Fuel Volatility
UK gas and power markets climbed this week, reversing early April softness as Norwegian supply constraints, evolving EU storage rules, and deepening global trade tensions reignited risk premiums across the energy complex.
Energy Markets Weekly: Tariff Turbulence and Supply Rebounds Dominate Early Q2 Trading
UK and European energy markets entered Q2 with heightened volatility driven by global trade tensions. NBP front-month gas dipped below 90p/therm after reaching intra-day lows not seen since September 2024. Power prices diverged, climbing to £86.40/MWh Day-Ahead, supported by low wind and rising gas-fired generation.
Liberation Day for Trump, Volatility Day for Everyone Else
We’ve seen this movie before. Only this time, the script is worse, the direction sloppier, and the fallout harder to contain.
Last week, Donald Trump declared “Liberation Day,” announcing sweeping new tariffs: 10% across the board for all imports to the US, and 20% for EU goods. There were no exemptions, not even for the UK, whose diplomats reportedly learned of the move from a Bloomberg push notification. The reaction? Markets gasped, global stocks sank, and wholesale energy prices across Europe—including in Britain—fell sharply. And that’s not the good kind of falling.
Energy Markets Weekly: Trump’s Tariffs and EU Storage Rule Revisions Shift the Outlook
UK and European energy markets opened April on firmer ground, with NBP front-month gas prices rising above 103p/therm and power following gas higher, supported by cooler temperatures, reduced wind output, and supply-side uncertainty. Geopolitical and policy-driven risks remain top of mind. A tentative ceasefire in the Black Sea remains in effect, while former US President Donald Trump’s reintroduction of sweeping global tariffs, including a 10% tariff on UK goods, has triggered broader market volatility.
Energy Markets Weekly: Black Sea Ceasefire and LNG Supply Weigh on Prices
The UK and European wholesale energy markets continue to trend lower, as geopolitical developments and robust LNG arrivals weigh on sentiment. The announcement of a 30-day ceasefire between the US and Russia, aimed at halting attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, has injected further downside risk into gas prices.
Energy Markets Weekly: Ceasefire Optimism and Strong LNG Flows Drive Market Weakness
The UK and European wholesale energy markets continue to trend lower, as geopolitical developments and robust LNG arrivals weigh on sentiment. The announcement of a 30-day ceasefire between the US and Russia, aimed at halting attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, has injected further downside risk into gas prices.
Energy Markets Weekly: Gas Prices Surge on Geopolitical Uncertainty and Weather Risks
UK and European wholesale energy markets surged higher this week, driven by geopolitical tensions and colder weather forecasts. The UK NBP day-ahead gas price jumped 6.55p to 108.25p/therm, as traders reacted to developments in US-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations and the largest Ukrainian drone strike on Russia since the war began.
Energy Markets Weekly: Falling Prices as Warmer Weather and Strong LNG Flows Weigh on Markets
UK and European wholesale energy markets remain under bearish pressure, as warmer weather, strong LNG imports, and steady Norwegian flows push prices lower. NBP day-ahead gas fell below 100p/therm, while UK baseload power prices rose slightly, tracking lower wind output.
UK Gas Prices in 2025: The Year of Expensive Uncertainty
If you were hoping for a return to normalcy in UK gas prices, 2025 has one thing to say: think again. Wholesale gas prices might not be scaling the eye-watering peaks of 2022, but they’re still high by any historical measure. The new normal? Elevated costs, sharp swings, and an energy market that feels more like a casino than a predictable system.
So what’s going on? Let’s break it down.
Europe’s Gas Gamble: Will the UK Get Burned?
The EU has decided it’s time to roll the dice on gas storage. Instead of rigid targets forcing member states to stockpile months in advance, Brussels now wants a more “flexible” approach—letting countries delay filling reserves to avoid summer price spikes. Sounds sensible, right?
Well, maybe. Or maybe this is just another classic case of short-term market tinkering creating long-term instability. And for the UK, which still depends on European gas flows despite all the post-Brexit chest-thumping, this is yet another headache.
Energy Markets Weekly: Colder Weather and Storage Risks Keep Prices in Focus
The UK and European wholesale energy markets remain volatile, with colder weather forecasts, shifting LNG dynamics, and ongoing storage policy discussions shaping sentiment. While gas and power prices have seen some upward pressure this week, strong LNG arrivals have provided a counterbalance, preventing sharper gains.
Energy Markets Weekly: Prices Slide as Mild Weather and LNG Flows Weigh on Markets
UK and European wholesale energy markets have weakened sharply in the past week, as milder weather, strong LNG arrivals, and falling demand expectations continue to pressure prices. Gas markets have seen a significant drop, with NBP Day-Ahead falling 8.05p over the week, while UK power prices followed the trend, declining £5.19/MWh.
What If the EU Fails to Refill Gas Storage? The UK’s Energy Market Faces a Reckoning
Europe’s gas reserves are dwindling, and this time, there’s no easy way out. Storage levels have fallen below 50%, far earlier in the year than expected, and the continent is burning through gas at its fastest rate since the 2022 energy crisis. European governments had hoped to glide through this winter with enough reserves left to make summer refilling straightforward. That hope is now fading fast.
The EU’s strategic response? Unclear. Some countries, notably Germany, are already pushing for a relaxation of gas storage mandates, arguing that rigid targets could push prices even higher while offering little security. But the real issue runs deeper: what if Europe simply cannot refill its gas storage this summer? What happens if market conditions, geopolitical factors, and logistical constraints combine to make this a crisis that money alone cannot solve?
The implications are severe—particularly for the UK, which remains reliant on European gas flows despite its LNG capabilities.
Europe’s Gas Price Cap: A Lifeline or a Ticking Time Bomb for the UK?
The European Commission is once again flirting with the idea of a temporary gas price cap—a move that would, in theory, shield its industries from soaring energy costs and level the playing field against the U.S. But history tells us that price caps in energy markets rarely end well, and for the UK, the ripple effects could be profound.
Let’s break it down.