We’ve seen this movie before. Only this time, the script is worse, the direction sloppier, and the fallout harder to contain.

Last week, Donald Trump declared “Liberation Day,” announcing sweeping new tariffs: 10% across the board for all imports to the US, and 20% for EU goods. There were no exemptions, not even for the UK, whose diplomats reportedly learned of the move from a Bloomberg push notification. The reaction? Markets gasped, global stocks sank, and wholesale energy prices across Europe—including in Britain—fell sharply. And that’s not the good kind of falling.

If you were hoping for a return to normalcy in UK gas prices, 2025 has one thing to say: think again. Wholesale gas prices might not be scaling the eye-watering peaks of 2022, but they’re still high by any historical measure. The new normal? Elevated costs, sharp swings, and an energy market that feels more like a casino than a predictable system.

So what’s going on? Let’s break it down.

The EU has decided it’s time to roll the dice on gas storage. Instead of rigid targets forcing member states to stockpile months in advance, Brussels now wants a more “flexible” approach—letting countries delay filling reserves to avoid summer price spikes. Sounds sensible, right?

Well, maybe. Or maybe this is just another classic case of short-term market tinkering creating long-term instability. And for the UK, which still depends on European gas flows despite all the post-Brexit chest-thumping, this is yet another headache.

Europe’s gas reserves are dwindling, and this time, there’s no easy way out. Storage levels have fallen below 50%, far earlier in the year than expected, and the continent is burning through gas at its fastest rate since the 2022 energy crisis. European governments had hoped to glide through this winter with enough reserves left to make summer refilling straightforward. That hope is now fading fast.

The EU’s strategic response? Unclear. Some countries, notably Germany, are already pushing for a relaxation of gas storage mandates, arguing that rigid targets could push prices even higher while offering little security. But the real issue runs deeper: what if Europe simply cannot refill its gas storage this summer? What happens if market conditions, geopolitical factors, and logistical constraints combine to make this a crisis that money alone cannot solve?

The implications are severe—particularly for the UK, which remains reliant on European gas flows despite its LNG capabilities.

The European Commission is once again flirting with the idea of a temporary gas price cap—a move that would, in theory, shield its industries from soaring energy costs and level the playing field against the U.S. But history tells us that price caps in energy markets rarely end well, and for the UK, the ripple effects could be profound.

Let’s break it down.

The UK’s wholesale energy market is entering yet another phase of turbulence. The last two years have been dominated by shocks—Russia’s war in Ukraine, soaring LNG prices, emergency government interventions, and a scramble to keep the lights on without breaking the bank. But now, as we enter 2025, the chaos has given way to something even more unsettling: uncertainty.

Wholesale prices may have stabilised from their crisis peaks, but the road ahead is anything but smooth. Europe’s energy system is shifting, and the UK is caught in the middle of a rapidly evolving geopolitical and economic puzzle. The balance of power in gas, oil, and electricity markets is changing, and the UK must navigate a landscape where the old assumptions about stability, supply, and cost no longer hold.

If you run a business in the UK, chances are you’ve been burned by rising energy costs, opaque supplier practices, or the rollercoaster that is the wholesale energy market. You’re not alone. The UK’s energy regulatory framework, overseen by Ofgem, has become an unwieldy beast—too slow to react, too tied up in bureaucracy, and too often behind the curve. Now, the government wants to reform it. The question is: will it be the radical overhaul the market needs, or just another layer of complexity?

There’s a quiet revolution happening in the UK’s energy market, but you’d be forgiven for missing it amid the usual noise of economic forecasts, net-zero debates, and the latest geopolitical spats. Two seemingly separate developments—the approval of P415 regulation, allowing new players into the wholesale energy market, and the government’s push for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)—are setting the stage for a transformation.

But the real question is: will these changes actually deliver lower prices and greater energy security, or are we just setting ourselves up for another round of cost overruns and regulatory chaos?

There’s a growing sense that the political winds are shifting. Across the world, climate policies that once seemed inevitable are facing serious pushback. Trump is back in office, promising to supercharge fossil fuels and withdraw (again) from the Paris Agreement. Right-wing parties across Europe are making gains on platforms that include rolling back green regulations. In the UK, investment in renewables is stagnating, and court rulings have put the future of key North Sea oil and gas projects in doubt.

So what happens if the UK follows this global trend? What if we start backtracking on climate action? If you’re an energy investor, a consumer, or, well, someone who cares about how much their electricity bill costs, the answer isn’t pretty.