Energy Markets Weekly: Cold snap lifts gas as UK wind steadies, LNG remains subdued
Kevin Lumley Kevin Lumley

Energy Markets Weekly: Cold snap lifts gas as UK wind steadies, LNG remains subdued

UK and continental markets rebounded after an early September lull. A short-lived cold spell across Northwest Europe, tighter Norwegian flows, and muted LNG arrivals gave prompt contracts bullish support. On the power side, weak wind early in the week pushed gas plants to the margin, lifting Day-Ahead prices before improved renewable forecasts offered some relief. Storage remains comfortably high overall, though injections are slowing as seasonal maintenance curtails supply flexibility.

Read More
Energy Markets Weekly: Norwegian outages whipsaw balances as French strikes add risk
Kevin Lumley Kevin Lumley

Energy Markets Weekly: Norwegian outages whipsaw balances as French strikes add risk

UK and continental markets spent the week swinging between bearish storage comfort and bullish supply curtailments. Norwegian flows collapsed to minimal levels before bouncing as maintenance rolled off, while French strike action introduced fresh uncertainty into power fundamentals. Storage sits around three-quarters full, cushioning near-term shocks, but volatility remains acute.

Read More
Energy Markets Weekly: NCS works and softer wind keep the prompt edgy; curves still disciplined
Kevin Lumley Kevin Lumley

Energy Markets Weekly: NCS works and softer wind keep the prompt edgy; curves still disciplined

UK and Continental markets are trading a familiar pattern: prompt gas is steady in the mid-70s p/th as lower wind lifted gas-for-power, while the back of the curve remains range-bound despite firmer carbon. Norwegian supply is broadly healthy but peppered by unplanned cuts and a chunky late-Aug/Sept maintenance slate that is keeping a modest early-winter risk premium.

Read More
Energy Markets Weekly: Norwegian Works and French Heat Keep Prompts Firm; Curves Still Range-Bound
Kevin Lumley Kevin Lumley

Energy Markets Weekly: Norwegian Works and French Heat Keep Prompts Firm; Curves Still Range-Bound

The headline curves still look calm, but under the surface the market is trading the weather and the maintenance diary. With Norwegian works approaching and French heat lingering, prompts can spike even as the back end stays disciplined. Use the volatility to your advantage: buy the dips for near-term cover and layer Winter-25 with patience.

Read More
Energy Markets Weekly: Norwegian Outages, Soft Weather, and Political Uncertainty Stir Volatility
Kevin Lumley Kevin Lumley

Energy Markets Weekly: Norwegian Outages, Soft Weather, and Political Uncertainty Stir Volatility

UK and European gas markets climbed further into bullish territory this week, as persistent Norwegian outages constrained supply and LNG inflows appeared insufficient to fully compensate. NBP front-month prices surged to 88.50p/therm, while UK baseload Day-Ahead power moved significantly higher to £76.71/MWh, bolstered by low wind forecasts early in the week and cooling demand risks across southern Europe.

Read More
Energy Markets Weekly: Norwegian Flows Stabilise, but Storage and Sanctions Dominate Outlook
Kevin Lumley Kevin Lumley

Energy Markets Weekly: Norwegian Flows Stabilise, but Storage and Sanctions Dominate Outlook

UK and continental energy markets ended the week with moderate bearish retracements. NBP Day-Ahead fell to 85.80p/therm as Norwegian volumes returned following extensive planned maintenance at Kollsnes and Troll. UK baseload prices, however, edged higher on Friday as wind generation output dipped again and cooling demand remains uncertain amid continued below-normal temperatures.

Read More
Energy Markets Weekly: EU Roadmap and Norwegian Maintenance Tighten Outlook
Kevin Lumley Kevin Lumley

Energy Markets Weekly: EU Roadmap and Norwegian Maintenance Tighten Outlook

UK and European energy markets surged at the start of May as geopolitical policies and tighter supply conditions overrode softer seasonal demand. Natural gas and power prices posted sharp gains, buoyed by unplanned Norwegian outages, colder-than-average temperatures, and the European Commission’s draft legislation to ban Russian gas imports by end-2025. The gas prompt hit 83.5p/therm while UK baseload surged over 60% week-on-week, closing at £83.71/MWh.

Read More
Liberation Day for Trump, Volatility Day for Everyone Else
Kevin Lumley Kevin Lumley

Liberation Day for Trump, Volatility Day for Everyone Else

We’ve seen this movie before. Only this time, the script is worse, the direction sloppier, and the fallout harder to contain.

Last week, Donald Trump declared “Liberation Day,” announcing sweeping new tariffs: 10% across the board for all imports to the US, and 20% for EU goods. There were no exemptions, not even for the UK, whose diplomats reportedly learned of the move from a Bloomberg push notification. The reaction? Markets gasped, global stocks sank, and wholesale energy prices across Europe—including in Britain—fell sharply. And that’s not the good kind of falling.

Read More
Energy Markets Weekly: Trump’s Tariffs and EU Storage Rule Revisions Shift the Outlook
Kevin Lumley Kevin Lumley

Energy Markets Weekly: Trump’s Tariffs and EU Storage Rule Revisions Shift the Outlook

UK and European energy markets opened April on firmer ground, with NBP front-month gas prices rising above 103p/therm and power following gas higher, supported by cooler temperatures, reduced wind output, and supply-side uncertainty. Geopolitical and policy-driven risks remain top of mind. A tentative ceasefire in the Black Sea remains in effect, while former US President Donald Trump’s reintroduction of sweeping global tariffs, including a 10% tariff on UK goods, has triggered broader market volatility.

Read More
Energy Markets Weekly: Black Sea Ceasefire and LNG Supply Weigh on Prices
Kevin Lumley Kevin Lumley

Energy Markets Weekly: Black Sea Ceasefire and LNG Supply Weigh on Prices

The UK and European wholesale energy markets continue to trend lower, as geopolitical developments and robust LNG arrivals weigh on sentiment. The announcement of a 30-day ceasefire between the US and Russia, aimed at halting attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, has injected further downside risk into gas prices.

Read More