Energy Market Update - 16 October 2025
Gas eased while power firmed on parts of the curve. The mix was driven by lower interconnector capacity, a small lift in UK carbon, and steady Norwegian supply against mild weather.
NBP contracts continued to soften across the near curve, reflecting comfortable fundamentals and seasonal temperatures. The UK Day-Ahead settled at 81.00p/therm. The front month printed around 81p/therm after a small day-on-day dip at settlement. On supply, Norwegian nominations remain healthy. Exits peaked recently and, despite fresh maintenance at Dvalin and Oseberg, today’s combined nominations were close to 291 mcm per day, with most of the reduction absorbed on the Continent. UK system balances opened comfortable, helped by Langeled and steady UKCS output. Interconnector dynamics are still shaped by the IUK outage, due back on 20 October, while BBL is largely inactive. EU storage sits just above 83% and injections are slowing in line with the season. Wind speeds are expected to remain lacklustre for a few days, then rise above average from 20 October, which should trim gas-for-power demand.
UK power moved the other way. Day-Ahead baseload eased to £92.45/MWh as renewable output improved into late blocks, yet forward contracts edged up. November baseload rose to about £82.40/MWh and Q1-26 to roughly £83.8/MWh. Two factors supported the curve. First, UK carbon gained by almost £1 per tonne, lifting thermal costs. Second, an unplanned reduction in interconnector capacity with France tightened imports during trading, widening sparks on the near curve. Near-term wind forecasts point to choppy output this week before a recovery next week toward, and then above, seasonal norms. That pattern should cap prompt price spikes when realised, although reduced cross-border capacity keeps intraday ranges wide.
Brent crude was near $61.9/bbl. Coal API2 Cal-26 traded close to $99/t. EUAs were about €77.9/t and UK ETS near £55.0/t. The carbon tone continues to underpin winter power while gas remains the main driver for day-to-day moves.