Energy Market Update - 15 October 2025
Gas and power firmed yesterday on weaker wind and cooler temperatures, but gains were modest. Comfortable storage, improving Norwegian exports and a busy LNG slate continue to cap upside.
Natural gas moved higher across the near curve, with the UK front month up 1.08p/therm and the TTF front month near €31.6/MWh. Spot action was mixed: UK Day-Ahead settled around 80.5p/therm as the system opened long on higher Langeled flows, steady UKCS output and firmer LNG send-out. Aggregate Norwegian nominations held in the low 300s mcm per day despite ongoing work at Vesterled, while interconnectors were quiet with IUK in planned maintenance and BBL near flat. Continental storage sits just under 83% full, with injections naturally slowing. Near-term weather is close to seasonal norms, but the market remains alert to colder snaps and the possibility that Norwegian maintenance could overrun.
Power tracked gas, although the prompt remained tightly tied to the wind profile. UK Day-Ahead baseload cleared near £103/MWh after renewables underperformed through core hours, while November baseload edged up by about £0.74/MWh. Forecasts point to well-below-normal UK wind this week, averaging roughly 4.6 GW, then rebuilding to 10–20% above normal next week at about 12.7 GW. That pattern should lift CCGT burn in the near term, then ease gas-for-power demand as wind recovers. Interconnector imports from France and the Netherlands provided additional margin cover, and French nuclear availability is expected to improve into mid-October.
Other commodities offered a mixed backdrop. EU carbon eased to an almost two-week low on trade tensions, trimming support to the power curve while still keeping thermal costs elevated. Brent traded in the low to mid-$60s per barrel after last week’s lows. Coal for Cal-26 hovered just below $100 per tonne. In LNG, flows into North-West Europe remain robust, with multiple Atlantic cargoes due, including three from the United States and one from Qatar for the UK this month. US liquefaction feedgas is on course to reach a fresh high, which should maintain Atlantic supply into Europe and help stabilise prompt pricing.