Energy Market Update - 14 October 2025
Markets stayed range-bound. Gas softened after tariff headlines, then steadied as LNG and Norwegian flows improved. UK power lagged gas, with firmer sparks keeping the curve supported despite mild weather.
Natural gas traded lower into Friday’s close after tariff threats triggered a risk-off move in NBP and TTF. Prices stabilised as fundamentals remained comfortable. European storage is about 83% full, with weekly injections slowing as autumn demand picks up. Norwegian exports are recovering as maintenance eases, although short interruptions at Troll and Nyhamna kept the system sensitive. UK balances were orderly. Langeled nominations increased, Vesterled resumed, and the grid opened long. UK LNG send-out was firm and three US cargoes plus one Qatari are expected this month. Rising US feedgas toward a new high should keep Atlantic supply to Europe well covered. At the close, NBP Day-ahead was 79.65p/therm and the front month around 80p/therm.
Power moved differently. Prompt prices were elevated by lower wind through the trading window, but the curve was slower to follow gas. UK Day-ahead baseload settled at £97.96/MWh. November and Winter strips eased only modestly as spark spreads stayed firm and interconnector imports provided margin cover. Wind output is expected to be below normal through mid-week before improving, which should reduce CCGT burn when realised. EDF’s higher nuclear output target for this year also points to steadier French availability into late October.
Other commodities were steady. Brent settled near $63.3/bbl after last week’s lows. Carbon eased slightly, with EUAs around €78/t and UK allowances in the mid-£50s/t, keeping thermal costs elevated without driving the curve. LNG benchmarks were stable, with Asian prices in the low $11s/MMBtu and European spot-linked cargo values near hub parity.