Energy Market Update - 13 October 2025
Gas and power are steady to softer this morning. Storage is high, Norwegian supply is improving, and weather is near seasonal. Ukraine headlines and weak wind add only brief support.
Natural gas rose more than 2% last week, then eased today. The UK Day-ahead opened at 81.12p/therm, down from 82.00p/therm, following a small fall in TTF. Last week’s gains were driven by strikes on Ukrainian energy assets, cooler October forecasts across key hubs, and an expected slump in renewable output. Storage remains the main anchor. EU inventories are near 83% full and the winter outlook signals good resilience even if Russian flows or LNG were to tighten. Weekly injections slowed to about 0.33% as cooler weather lifted demand. On flows, Norwegian nominations are in the low 300s mcm per day. Operators still flag uncertainty at Kollsnes, Troll and Oseberg, but overall availability is higher than late September. The UK system opened long on stronger Langeled receipts and steady UKCS output. LNG send-out lifted after a new cargo at Isle of Grain, and several further arrivals are scheduled. Interconnectors are muted with IUK due back on 20 October.
UK power is tight on the prompt but mixed elsewhere. System demand is about 31.5 GW. Gas covers roughly 71.5% of generation. Nuclear and biomass contribute around 16.2%. Renewables supply about 11.2%. The UK is importing close to 9.7% of its power and exporting around 8.5% to the Netherlands, Ireland and Denmark. Low wind and solar have pushed the intra-day price to as high as £200/MWh this evening. The Day-ahead contract is trading higher at £98.50/MWh, up from £85.06/MWh. Wind output is forecast to fall through Friday, then recover over the weekend while remaining below seasonal norms. That profile points to higher CCGT burn during low wind hours. Nuclear availability is expected to improve from later in October.
Other commodities are calm. Brent is $63.69 per barrel, up from $62.73 after last week’s five month low. Hopes of progress in United States and China trade talks have supported crude. EU carbon eased to €79.40 per tonne from €79.68 after touching an eight month high on Friday. The carbon backdrop still keeps thermal generation costs elevated but it is not pushing the power curve.