Energy Market Update - 10 October 2025
Gas softened while UK day-ahead power rose. Comfortable storage and improving Norwegian flows anchored the curve, with prompt swings mainly driven by wind and short-lived operational headlines.
Natural gas eased on milder forecasts and steady supply. NBP Day-Ahead settled at 82.50p/therm, down from 82.95p. NBP Nov-25 closed at 82.97p/therm. European storage stood near 82.8%. UK system demand was about 179 mcm. UKCS output was roughly 98 mcm, with Langeled at around 65.5 mcm and Vesterled near 7 mcm. LNG send-out lifted to about 18 mcm across Isle of Grain, South Hook and Dragon. Interconnectors were quiet, with no exports via IUK or BBL. Norwegian exits held above 310 mcm per day despite brief issues at Troll and reduced capacity at Nyhamna, limiting near-term risk.
Power firmed on the prompt but eased along the curve. UK Day-Ahead baseload settled at £87.00/MWh, up from £85.40/MWh as wind dipped during core hours before recovering late. November baseload slipped to £83.31/MWh. Q1-26 was £84.54/MWh. Interconnector imports from France and the Netherlands supported margins. Nuclear availability remained low but broadly stable, with returns expected to pick up later in October. Wind output is forecast to recover into next week, which should reduce CCGT burn when realised.
Other commodities were mixed. Brent month-ahead was $65.22/bbl. European coal for Cal-26 was $97.38/tonne. EUAs were €79.23/t and UK ETS £55.00/t, keeping thermal costs elevated without driving the curve. LNG markers were steady to softer, with JKM near $11.10/MMBtu and Henry Hub around $3.25/MMBtu. Overall, healthy inventories, improving Norwegian nominations and a busy Atlantic LNG slate continue to temper geopolitical noise.