Energy Market Update - 09 October 2025
Prompt gas and power eased as wind recovered and supply lengthened. Curves drifted lower with storage near 83% and Norwegian nominations steady in the low 300s mcm per day.
Natural gas slipped after Monday’s firming. UK Day-Ahead closed at 82.95p/therm, down from 85.85p. NBP November marked around 83.6p/therm by the morning update. European storage was reported close to 82.9% full, keeping a solid autumn cushion. UK balances opened comfortable with system demand about 162 mcm, positive linepack and higher pipeline receipts. UKCS output was near 98 mcm. Langeled delivered about 60 mcm and Vesterled roughly 8 mcm. LNG send-out was steady near 16 mcm per day from Dragon, South Hook and Isle of Grain, with several Atlantic cargoes scheduled for North-West Europe and a small cluster for the UK. Interconnector activity remained muted as IUK was offline for maintenance and BBL hovered around flat. Across the North Sea, Norwegian exits held above 310 mcm per day despite brief issues at Troll and reduced capacity at Nyhamna, helping to cap near-term risk.
UK power tracked the softer gas prompt but was supported by intraday renewable swings. Day-Ahead baseload settled at £85.40/MWh, down from £91.73/MWh the prior session as wind recovered into evening blocks. Forward prices were more measured, with November baseload near £83.8/MWh and Q1-26 around £84.8/MWh. Interconnector imports from France and the Netherlands added margin cover when renewables dipped. Nuclear availability stayed low but largely stable, with planned improvements signalled into mid-October. Forecasts point to wind output rebuilding later this week, which should trim CCGT burn and keep prompt prices contained when realised.
Other commodities were mixed. Brent Month-ahead was about $66.25 per barrel. European carbon strengthened, with EUA Dec-25 near €79 per tonne, while UK ETS Dec-25 eased to roughly £55 per tonne. Coal ARA CIF Cal-26 hovered close to $98 per tonne. In global gas, JKM for next month was around $11.3 per MMBtu and Henry Hub spot near $3.35 per MMBtu, leaving Atlantic–Pacific arbitrage tight and reinforcing Europe’s reliance on weather, Norwegian reliability and LNG scheduling over the coming days.