Energy Market Report - 15 June 2026
Wholesale energy markets fell sharply at the start of the week as an apparent easing of tensions between the US and Iran drained the geopolitical risk premium that had supported prices through early June. Stronger wind forecasts and comfortable physical supply added to the bearish tone across gas, power and the wider commodity complex.
Natural Gas
UK and continental gas prices dropped steeply, led lower by the unwinding of Middle East risk premium and forecasts for stronger wind that reduce the call on gas-for-power generation. NBP day-ahead settled at 113.50 p/therm on Friday, down around 8 p/therm, with the front-month trading near 106 p/therm into Monday and TTF front-month easing to around €46/MWh. The physical backdrop is comfortable: Norwegian exit nominations have recovered above 300 mcm/day following the resolution of an unplanned Troll outage, and flows to the UK via Langeled rose this morning, even as planned maintenance begins at Troll and continues at Nyhamna and Kollsnes. UK LNG send-out is steady near 8 mcm/day against a full arrivals schedule, though continental storage remains a concern at roughly 44 per cent full, the lowest for mid-June in several years as high summer prices and looser EU refill rules discourage injection.
Electricity
UK and European power followed gas and oil lower, with the prompt leading the decline. Day-ahead baseload settled at just £19.40/MWh on Friday and day-ahead peak turned negative as a weekend of strong solar and wind pushed midday system prices below zero, while front-month baseload eased to £99.10/MWh. The forward curve proved more resilient and firmed slightly into Monday, supported by a heavy nuclear outage stack that includes both Sizewell B units alongside unplanned losses at Heysham and Hartlepool, and by wind output that has now slipped just below seasonal norms. Interconnector imports and continental hydro continue to help cover evening ramps.
Other Commodities
Crude extended its slide as the peace signals firmed, with Brent settling at $87.33/bbl on Friday, down around $3, and easing further on Monday on the reported reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; WTI traded near $85/bbl. Coal softened in sympathy, the front calendar contract slipping to $120.29/tonne. Carbon was the exception to the broad sell-off: EU allowances held broadly flat at €77.17/tonne while the UK allowance firmed modestly to £55.88/tonne, leaving the UK to EU spread little changed. Asian LNG eased, with the JKM benchmark down to around $18/MMBtu as the global market stayed comfortable.