Energy Market Report - 12 June 2026
Wholesale energy markets sold off sharply this morning after Washington signalled it would not pursue further military escalation against Iran, prompting traders to unwind the geopolitical risk premium built over the past week. Gas, power, oil and carbon all moved lower, with crude at eight-week lows and liquidity thin in early trading.
Natural Gas
Gas led the move lower as the prospect of a US-Iran agreement - President Trump suggested a deal could be signed as soon as this weekend, though Tehran has yet to confirm - reduced supply risk across the complex. The NBP front-month, which settled at 119.76 p/therm on Thursday, is trading 8 to 9.5 p/therm lower this morning, while Thursday's day-ahead settled at 121.55 p/therm and TTF July is around 6 per cent lower near €46.60/MWh. Thursday's firmness owed much to Norway: a compressor failure at Troll removed 25 mcm/day, since resolved, and maintenance is underway at Nyhamna and Kollsnes, pushing nominations to 263.8 mcm/day, the lowest since late May. Flows have recovered to 295.5 mcm/day this morning, with Langeled up 19 mcm/day, UKCS output at 93 mcm/day and the UK system opening 11 mcm/day long. EU storage stood at 43.1 per cent on 9 June, the lowest for the date since 2022, leaving the rebuild task a persistent source of support beneath the sell-off.
Electricity
UK power tracked gas lower. Day-ahead baseload settled at £77.50/MWh on Thursday, down £31.80 as wind output near 15.5 GW and soft demand outweighed early geopolitical support, while the day-ahead peak settled below baseload at £68.13/MWh on strong midday solar. This morning weekend baseload is indicated near £19/MWh and the curve has fallen, with Winter 26 marked around £102/MWh against Thursday's £106.41/MWh settlement. Wind is forecast to drop sharply over the weekend, lifting gas-for-power demand to 29 mcm/day, and nuclear availability remains constrained with six reactors wholly or partly offline, including unplanned outages at Heysham and Hartlepool. On the Continent, French day-ahead baseload at €25.69/MWh sits well below Germany at €97.46/MWh.
Other Commodities
Brent settled at $90.38/bbl on Thursday, down 2.9 per cent, and has extended to eight-week lows this morning, with WTI at $87.71/bbl. Coal eased alongside the complex, with ARA Cal27 settling at $123.01/tonne, down around 1 per cent. In carbon, EUAs for December 2026 settled at €77.14/tonne, down €0.36, while UK Allowances underperformed at £55.29/tonne, down £0.98 on the day. Global LNG benchmarks softened, with JKM settling at $18.68/MMBtu and Henry Hub near $3.10/MMBtu, and sterling firmed modestly against the dollar to 1.3412.