Energy Market Report - 11 June 2026
Escalating conflict between the United States and Iran dominated wholesale energy markets this week, with both sides exchanging air strikes for a second consecutive day and President Trump warning of further action unless Tehran agrees to a peace deal. Gas, power, oil, coal and carbon all moved higher on Wednesday as risk premia built across the complex, though prompt prices eased this morning on warmer forecasts and recovering renewable output.
Natural Gas
Gas prices rose strongly on Wednesday as the Gulf conflict reinforced a structural bid along the curve. NBP day-ahead settled at 124.00 p/therm, up 6.25 p/therm on the day, while TTF day-ahead was assessed around €50.0/MWh - its highest since 19 May. The Winter-26 contract closed at 124.20 p/therm, a multi-week high. Supply fundamentals added support: Norwegian flows fell to 306.5 mcm/day on Wednesday amid maintenance at the Troll field, and this morning an unplanned compressor failure there cut a further 15 mcm/day, dragging total Norwegian nominations down to 280 mcm/day and reducing flows to the UK by around 25 mcm/day, mostly via the Langeled pipeline. EU storage sits at roughly 43 per cent full - the lowest for the date since 2022 - as elevated prices and constrained LNG supply linked to disruption at the Strait of Hormuz discourage the injections normally made through summer. The prompt has softened slightly this morning, with the UK system opening comfortably supplied and forecasts pointing to warmer-than-normal conditions through June into early July.
Electricity
UK power split between a softer prompt and a firmer curve. Day-ahead baseload settled at £109.30/MWh, down £3.80, as forecasts showed wind and solar generation ramping up into the weekend and cutting the call on gas-fired plant. Further out, the curve tracked gas higher, with Winter-26 baseload settling at £105.76/MWh, up £1.84, and indicated higher again this morning. Gas was the largest source of generation on Wednesday, with CCGT output of 8.6 GW meeting 28.1 per cent of GB demand against 20.8 per cent from wind and 12.5 per cent from solar. Nuclear availability remains thin, with six reactor units offline across Heysham, Torness, Sizewell B and Hartlepool, keeping the system leaning on gas plant despite the summer season. Continental prices moved higher in step with the UK.
Other Commodities
Oil extended its rally as the conflict entered a second day, with Brent front-month settling at $93.10/bbl, up $1.65, and rising further on Thursday. Coal followed, with ARA CIF Cal-27 up $1.33 at $124.30/tonne. Carbon markets firmed alongside the energy complex: EUAs for December 2026 delivery settled €1.35 higher at €77.50/tonne, while UK ETS allowances rose £1.04 to £56.27/tonne. Global LNG benchmarks also strengthened, with JKM front-month up $0.29 at $18.89/MMBtu and Henry Hub spot at $3.27/MMBtu. Sterling was broadly stable against both the euro and the dollar.