Energy Market Report - 10 June 2026
Energy markets are firmly back in the grip of geopolitics this morning after Iranian missile and drone attacks on US bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain marked the largest escalation since April's ceasefire. Tuesday's session had seen broad declines across gas, power and the wider commodity complex as easing tensions removed risk premium, but that move has reversed sharply at the open.
Natural Gas
Gas prices softened through Tuesday on stronger Norwegian supply before firming this morning on the overnight escalation. NBP day-ahead settled at 117.75 p/therm, down 3.85 p/therm on the day, with the July-26 front-month closing at 117.19 p/therm and TTF front-month easing to around €48.74/MWh. Norwegian flows rose to 333.2 mcm/day on Tuesday, although scheduled maintenance is set to lift curtailments to just over 80 mcm/day by 14 June, and European storage near 43 per cent full remains well below last year - a deficit that keeps deferred contracts supported. This morning NBP July-26 was indicated around 118.74 p/therm, with Winter-26 near 122.77 p/therm, as the UK system opened roughly 10 mcm/day short despite warmer, windier forecasts trimming gas-for-power demand.
Electricity
UK day-ahead baseload settled sharply higher at £113.10/MWh on tighter prompt conditions, even as the forward curve tracked gas lower, with July-26 closing at £102.02/MWh and Winter-26 at £103.92/MWh. Stronger solar output and steady interconnector imports weighed on CCGT requirements, although nuclear availability remains constrained with units at Heysham, Torness, Sizewell B and Hartlepool offline through the summer maintenance window. German baseload weakened on Tuesday, with the Cal-27 contract touching its lowest level this month, while this morning UK forwards have followed gas higher with July-26 offered around £104/MWh.
Other Commodities
Brent settled 2.97 per cent lower at $91.45/bbl and WTI fell 3.40 per cent to $88.20/bbl as easing tensions unwound risk premium, a move now vulnerable to the overnight strikes. ARA coal Cal-27 dropped to $122.97/tonne, while carbon softened with EUA Dec-26 down €0.80 at €76.15/tonne and UK ETS Dec-26 broadly steady at £55.23/tonne. Asian JKM eased to $18.60/MMBtu and Henry Hub held near $3.14/MMBtu, while sterling firmed slightly to 1.3376 against the dollar.