Energy Market Report - 09 June 2026
Wholesale gas and power settled firmer across the curve on Monday as renewed tensions in the Middle East rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium and cooler near-term weather lifted demand expectations. The wider commodity complex was mixed, with crude firmer at Monday's close before easing on Tuesday morning, coal modestly higher and carbon lagging the energy-led rally.
Natural Gas
UK and Continental gas strengthened on Monday, led by the front of the curve, as a returning risk premium met forecasts for cooler-than-normal weather across Northwest Europe over 9 and 10 June. NBP day-ahead settled at 121.60p/therm, up 3.10p, with the front-month at 120.53p/therm and Winter 26 at 123.28p/therm, while TTF day-ahead settled near €49.83/MWh, up around 3.8 per cent. Norwegian supply stayed firm, with Gassco exit nominations robust at around 330 mcm/day and Langeled into the UK easing only slightly to 63.10 mcm/day after a two-month high, though planned maintenance is set to lift Norwegian field outages from roughly 27 mcm/day to around 73 mcm/day by 11 June. LNG sendout into Northwest Europe softened to around 293 mcm/day, some 40 per cent below monthly norms, and European storage stood near 42 per cent full with injections running roughly 24 per cent below this point last year, an unusually slow build that supports injection-season pricing. Geopolitics remains the swing factor, with a prolonged disruption to the Strait of Hormuz capable of leaving storage filling only to 65 per cent to 70 per cent on current projections.
Electricity
UK power followed gas higher on Monday, with the nearer-dated contracts leading. UK baseload day-ahead settled at £104.40/MWh, up £6.90, and Winter 26 baseload rose to £105.33/MWh, while day-ahead peak settled at £93.50/MWh. Gas remains the marginal price-setter, so firmer fuel fed directly into power, and the picture was reinforced by constrained nuclear availability, with several major units including both Sizewell B reactors and Torness 1 on outage and nuclear meeting just under 10 per cent of Great Britain's demand. A near-term dip in wind and solar into Wednesday is expected to lift residual load before a brief recovery to the weekend, after which wind is forecast to fall back below seasonal norms. On the Continent, French day-ahead base settled well below the German and Dutch markets on strong nuclear, hydro and solar output, while German and Dutch Winter 26 baseload held firm near €118 to €119/MWh.
Other Commodities
Crude settled higher on Monday before reversing on Tuesday morning, with Brent up around 1.2 per cent to $94.25/bbl and WTI at $91.30/bbl as Middle East supply anxiety outweighed a fourth consecutive monthly OPEC+ output increase, before reports of stalling Iran-Israel hostilities eased supply concerns. Coal firmed modestly, with ARA CIF Calendar 27 at $126.10/tonne. Carbon lagged the energy-led move, with the EUA December 26 contract effectively flat at €76.95/tonne, though down close to 2.8 per cent on the week, and the UK Allowance December 26 easing to £55.29/tonne, leaving the UK scheme at a discount of roughly €13/tonne to the EU benchmark. In global gas, Asian JKM firmed to $18.91/MMBtu, holding a premium over a TTF equivalent near $16.81/MMBtu and limiting the volume of flexible LNG likely to divert into Europe, while Henry Hub held near $3.10/MMBtu.