Energy Market Report - 08 June 2026
Wholesale energy markets opened the week sharply higher as weekend military escalation between Israel and Iran returned a geopolitical risk premium to gas, power and crude, more than reversing a softer set of settlements on Friday. The tone is firmer across the board this morning, though comfortable physical supply and a warmer weather outlook are tempering the move.
Natural Gas
UK and European gas prices firmed this morning after trading lower into Friday's close, driven mainly by the deterioration in relations between Israel and Iran, which has revived supply-risk concerns and cast doubt over a durable ceasefire. Front-month NBP rose to around 124 p/therm from a Friday close near 117 p/therm, while day-ahead settled at 118.50 p/therm and TTF day-ahead was assessed close to €48/MWh. Fundamentals lent support too: Gassco reported exit nominations of 322.8 mcm/day this morning, with Langeled flows recovering and Easington nominations roughly doubling week-on-week as maintenance eased, though the market stayed cautious with Troll due back offline later in the week. EU storage at around 42 per cent full and below this time last year, with UK stocks low, continues to underpin forward prices, while heavy US-led LNG arrivals into north-west Europe and a milder weather outlook later in the week cap the near-term upside.
Electricity
UK power tracked gas and carbon higher this morning after a soft Friday settlement that left day-ahead baseload at 97.50 £/MWh, with weekend demand and strong renewables weighing on prompt prices. Front-month baseload firmed to around 106 £/MWh, helped by reduced nuclear availability, with both Sizewell B units, Torness and unplanned outages at Hartlepool and Heysham all offline. The main offset is renewable supply: UK wind and solar are forecast above seasonal norm and rising from Thursday, having averaged 8.6 GW last week and met around a third of demand. On the Continent, German power followed fuels and carbon higher while French prompt power softened on strong hydro from snowmelt and firm nuclear output, leaving a wide spread between the two markets.
Other Commodities
Crude reversed higher this morning on the Middle East escalation, having settled lower on Friday with Brent at 93.09 $/bbl and WTI at 90.54 $/bbl; the reported strike on an Iranian petrochemical complex reintroduced a supply-risk premium even though no physical loss has been confirmed. Coal was little changed, with ARA CIF Cal-27 around 124.23 $/tonne. In carbon, EUAs settled at 76.94 €/tonne for December 2026 and firmed with the wider complex this morning, while UK ETS December 2026 edged up to 55.53 £/tonne; attention in the UK remains on the planned £18 per tonne CO2 levy replacing Carbon Price Support from April 2028. Sterling was steady against the euro at 1.1570 and eased to 1.3339 against the dollar.