Energy Market Report - 05 June 2026
Energy markets opened firmer this morning, with gas and power both moving higher as Middle East tensions kept a risk premium in place and tight UK nuclear availability supported electricity. The wider commodity complex was mixed, with crude easing on the day while carbon and coal also slipped.
Natural Gas
UK and Continental gas firmed early today after a softer session yesterday, when increased Norwegian supply and cooler forecasts weighed on prompt prices. The NBP front month traded near 119.2 p/therm against yesterday's settlement of 117.93 p/therm, while the day-ahead settled at 119.60 p/therm and TTF month-ahead sat close to €48.8/MWh. The dominant driver remains geopolitical, with Hezbollah's rejection of a US-backed ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon reducing hopes of swift de-escalation and keeping attention on the Strait of Hormuz. On the fundamentals, Norwegian exit nominations rose to 313 mcm/day as annual maintenance began at Kårstø, UK-bound flows increased on Langeled, and LNG send-out held near 8 mcm/day amid a heavy arrivals slate dominated by US cargoes. Storage remains the key vulnerability, with GB stocks near 2.9 TWh and aggregate EU fill close to 41 per cent, both well below this time last year.
Electricity
UK power tracked gas higher this morning, having given back some ground on the forward curve yesterday. Day-ahead baseload settled at £101.42/MWh for delivery today, up sharply from £67.79/MWh as the strong midweek wind faded and reduced nuclear output increased reliance on gas-fired generation; day-ahead peak settled at £104.57/MWh. Several nuclear units are offline, including both Sizewell B reactors alongside Heysham, Torness and Hartlepool capacity, limiting low-carbon baseload and tightening margins. Wind supplied close to half of Thursday's generation and renewables around two-thirds, but output is forecast to ease towards seasonal norms over the coming days before recovering later in June, while Continental day-ahead prices were broadly in line across the main markets.
Other Commodities
Crude eased yesterday but held a firmer weekly trend on elevated Middle East risk, with Brent front month settling at $95.03 per barrel and WTI at $93.04 per barrel. Coal edged lower, with ARA CIF Cal-27 settling at $124.84 per tonne. Carbon also softened, EUAs settling at €77.07 per tonne and the UK ETS at £55.11 per tonne, though forward carbon stays elevated and supportive of thermal generation costs. Global gas benchmarks were mixed, with Asian JKM easing to $18.39/MMBtu while US Henry Hub held near $3.08/MMBtu. Sterling was steady to slightly softer against the euro at 1.1562 and marginally firmer against the dollar at 1.3420.