Energy Market Report - 16 June 2026
Wholesale energy markets opened the week with a steep sell-off as the geopolitical risk premium tied to the Middle East drained away on signs of a US and Iran de-escalation. Gas led the move lower, power followed at a slower pace, oil and coal weakened, and carbon was the notable exception, firming against the trend.
Natural Gas
UK and continental gas fell sharply on Monday as the prospect of an end to the US and Iran conflict, and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, removed the supply-disruption premium that had supported the market. The NBP front-month settled near 101 p/therm, down almost 11 p/therm from Friday, and the Winter 2026 contract shed close to 9 per cent; TTF for July settled around €42.5/MWh, its weakest since late April. Warmer weather, stronger solar and softer gas-for-power demand reinforced the bearish tone, with day-ahead burn forecast around 6 mcm/day lower. On supply, Gassco exit nominations held near 295 mcm/day despite an unplanned outage at Kollsnes, flows to the UK rose on higher Langeled nominations, and UK LNG send-out was steady at 8 mcm/day. European storage is around 44 per cent full but still some 9 percentage points below this time last year, which is keeping a floor under summer prices even as the prompt eases. This morning the front of the curve has steadied while later seasons have edged higher.
Electricity
UK baseload also fell on Monday but held up better than gas, with the front-month down around £6/MWh and the Winter 2026 contract easing roughly 5 per cent, as the slump in gas dragged on the marginal cost of generation. Day-ahead baseload settled near £108/MWh for the return to weekday demand. The prompt is supported by below-normal wind and a heavy nuclear outage stack, with both Sizewell B units, Torness 1 and Hartlepool capacity offline, while stronger solar caps daytime tightness. Further out the curve is firmer: warmer weather lifts the risk of air-conditioning demand and of nuclear derates from elevated cooling-water temperatures, and French and German forward seasons firmed even as the front fell. UK seasons have recovered some ground this morning.
Other Commodities
Crude extended its decline, with Brent settling near $83/bbl, down close to 5 per cent on the day and almost 12 per cent on the week, and WTI around $81/bbl, as the same de-escalation narrative pulled the geopolitical bid out of oil. Coal eased in step, with ARA CIF Cal 2027 down to about $115/tonne. Carbon went the other way: the EUA Dec 2026 contract firmed to around €80/tonne, up close to 4 per cent, and the UK ETS Dec 2026 gained to about £58/tonne, a divergence that points to carbon trading on auction and compliance dynamics rather than the weather and supply drivers moving gas and power. In global gas, Asian JKM softened to about $16/MMBtu, keeping Atlantic and US cargoes well placed for north-west Europe. Sterling was little changed, trading near $1.34 and €1.16.