Energy Market Update - 15 January 2026
Gas and power markets firmed on colder late-January forecasts and sustained storage withdrawals, despite strong LNG arrivals. UK power spot eased, but forwards followed gas higher. Oil, carbon and freight reflected shifting geopolitical risk.
European gas prices rose as weather models turned colder, with a sharp temperature drop forecast from around 26 January, boosting expected heating demand and accelerating storage draws. UK gas strengthened in step: NBP day-ahead settled at 85.50p/therm (from 83.20p/therm), while NBP Feb-26 closed at 83.06p/therm. On the continent, TTF was supported by the same weather shift, with the front-month indicated near €32.82/MWh this morning. Strong LNG supply into North West Europe remains a counterweight, helping keep prompt fundamentals comfortable. Norwegian flows were broadly steady, with exit nominations near 339 mcm/day, limiting supply-driven stress. A geopolitical risk premium persisted given ongoing tension linked to Iran, while record US export levels continue to influence global gas pricing dynamics.
UK power showed a split between prompt weakness and firmer forwards. UK day-ahead baseload settled at £91.86/MWh (from £95.93/MWh), reflecting improved near-term balance, while UK Feb-26 baseload settled at £94.58/MWh and was indicated closer to £97.50/MWh early today as gas strengthened. In Europe, German front-month baseload was reported around €115.50/MWh, holding a premium into March with the colder outlook. Lower wind output forecasts across North West Europe and an expected dip in UK nuclear availability around 19–21 January were key supports for thermal generation expectations.
Elsewhere, Brent M+1 settled at $66.52/bbl, with early indications of softer pricing as fears eased over immediate US intervention in Iran. Carbon strengthened, with EUA Dec-26 at €91.82/tonne and UK ETS Dec-26 at £72.72/tonne, reinforcing thermal cost support. Oil freight tightened sharply: tanker rates jumped as US policy in Venezuela signalled a shift in crude flows and lifted key route earnings to multi-year highs. Separately, Indian buying of Russian crude is expected to stabilise or dip again after a December drop, with reports of more cargoes waiting offshore as sanctions risk and compliance concerns reshape trade routes and sourcing.