Energy Market Update - 16 January 2026
Front end gas and power firmed on colder runs and weaker wind, then eased this morning as forecasts moderated. Storage draws continue. Norwegian and LNG supply stay supportive.
Natural gas moved higher into yesterday’s close before softening early today. NBP Day-ahead settled at 90.25 p/therm, with February indicated around 91 p/therm this morning. Tighter renewable output and expectations of a late-January cold spell lifted near-curve contracts, while stronger Norwegian nominations and active LNG scheduling tempered the move. Total Norwegian exits are reported near 341 mcm/day, with about 115 mcm/day to the UK. UK LNG send-out is forecast near 82 mcm/day, and thirteen cargoes are due over the next two weeks. UK system demand is close to 300 mcm/day and the grid opened marginally short. Continental inventories are a little above half full after brisk withdrawals through the cold period, which keeps a risk premium in Winter delivery but leaves Summer relatively anchored.
Power tracked gas. UK Day-ahead baseload cleared at about £99.50/MWh, with February around £98. Wind remains choppy and below seasonal norms through late January, keeping CCGT dispatch elevated during low-wind hours. Interconnector flows continued to provide cover and nuclear availability was broadly steady. Forward power firmed in line with gas and carbon at the front, while further seasons were more measured.
Other commodities were mixed. Brent front month is near $63.8/bbl and coal API2 Cal-27 sits just under $100/t. Carbon remains a key input to forward costs, with EUAs around €92/t and UKAs near £73/t after another firm session. LNG spot markers are steady, and Atlantic cargo availability remains healthy, supporting North-West European balances alongside stable Norwegian flows.