Energy Market Update - 14 January 2026
Gas and power rose as cold weather and storage draws tightened balances. Iran-related tensions lifted risk, while LNG arrivals and stable Norwegian flows tempered gains.
Natural gas markets stayed firm at the front of the curve. UK NBP day-ahead was assessed at 83.20p/therm, with the front month trading just below 82p/therm by this morning. Dutch TTF spot printed around €31.5/MWh. The driver remains weather: a prolonged cold spell has accelerated storage withdrawals across Europe, leaving aggregate stocks at 53.17% - around 12.5 percentage points below last year - keeping summer injection economics in focus. UK fundamentals were seasonally tight, with the system opening slightly short as demand lifted; however, Norwegian pipeline nominations stayed robust and a steady LNG slate should cushion supply. Twelve cargoes are scheduled into UK terminals over the next two weeks, while total Norwegian exit nominations to the Continent have hovered in the high-330s mcm/day. Geopolitics added risk premium: unrest in Iran and fresh US rhetoric (“help is on the way”) raised concern about disruption across the wider energy complex, which can feed back into gas through fuel-switching and LNG sentiment.
UK power followed gas higher. Day-ahead baseload settled at £95.93/MWh, while near-curve baseload (Feb-26) was marked around £92/MWh and Q2-26 near £71/MWh. A sharp drop in wind output - Elexon reported an average ~12GW on Tuesday, down roughly 35% day-on-day - lifted CCGT demand and supported prices. Stronger carbon compounded the effect: the EUA Dec-26 benchmark traded near €91/t, its highest since mid-2023, increasing thermal generation costs. Interconnector flows remained broadly supportive, but continued nuclear constraints on the Continent and in Britain kept the stack reliant on gas-fired output.
Across the wider energy complex, crude firmed but then paused as news flow evolved. Brent front-month was last marked near $65.5/bbl and WTI around $61/bbl. Early gains tied to Iran unrest and talk of tougher US measures eased after indications that Venezuelan exports may resume, softening the upside. Carbon continued to strengthen in Europe (EUA Dec-26 ~€90.7/t) and the UK ETS also pushed higher, reflecting heavier fossil generation and compliance buying. Coal prices were little changed to slightly firmer around $98/tonne (API2 Cal-27). Regional power spot prices on the Continent were elevated, with Germany and France both printing above €110/MWh amid low renewables and colder conditions.