Energy Market Update - 13 January 2026
UK and European gas and power markets strengthened sharply on Monday, driven by weather forecasts indicating a return to below-seasonal temperatures and reduced Norwegian flows due to scheduled maintenance.
Gas prices firmed across the curve, with NBP day-ahead settling around the high 70s p/therm, February near the high 70s to low 80s, and Summer 26 climbing to the mid 60s. Norwegian flows remained stable around 340mcm/day, though Nyhamna maintenance has reduced available volumes by approximately 20mcm/day until 16 January. European storage sits around 54% full, down nearly 12% year-on-year. Weather forecasts show temperatures were above seasonal norms on Monday but models now indicate cooling from today with levels expected below average through late January and into February. Temperatures could fall close to freezing in the UK and below zero in parts of Germany. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East added support, with concerns over potential LNG disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, though US LNG exports have reached record levels.
UK power prices tracked gas higher throughout Monday's session. Day-ahead baseload settled around the high £80s/MWh, February climbed to around the high £80s, and Summer 26 rose to approximately £71/MWh. CCGT generation increased roughly 10% compared to the previous session, compensating for a 5% reduction in wind output. Wind speeds are forecast to decline below seasonal norms throughout the week, potentially 10-20% below seasonal averages, increasing gas-for-power demand. French Flamanville reactors remain offline until 1 February following Storm Goretti damage.
Brent crude held steady around $64 per barrel, supported by geopolitical concerns after President Trump announced 25% tariffs on countries conducting business with Iran. Coal prices for ARA Cal 27 delivery remained stable near $97 per tonne. Carbon markets extended their rally, with EUAs climbing to around €90 per tonne from the high €80s, supported by strong demand at Germany's weekly auctions. UKAs rose to around £70 per tonne, maintaining their premium over European equivalents.