Energy Market Report - 13 July 2026
Energy markets open the week on a firmer footing after a weekend of renewed Middle East escalation rebuilt risk premium across the complex, reversing a softer close on Friday. Gas and power are leading the move higher this morning, while crude has stayed comparatively subdued and carbon little changed.
Natural Gas
In gas, geopolitics has taken over the front of the curve. The NBP front-month is trading near 122 p/therm this morning, up around 5 p/therm on Friday's close, after US strikes on Iranian targets and retaliatory Iranian action over the weekend, alongside renewed Iranian claims that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. That marks a sharp turn from Friday itself, when NBP day-ahead settled at 117.30 p/therm, down around 3.5 per cent, and the TTF front-month held near 48.7 €/MWh, as Norwegian flows recovered to about 322 mcm/day and LNG arrivals strengthened. The physical picture remains reasonably comfortable, with a heavy US-weighted cargo slate into North West Europe and firm sendout, but a continuing outage at the US Freeport facility, reported process issues at Norway's Asgard field and EU storage near 52 per cent, below the pace needed to reach 90 per cent by 1 November, are keeping a supportive floor under the curve.
Electricity
In power, prices are tracking gas higher this morning after a weaker prior session. UK day-ahead baseload settled at 106.95 £/MWh on Friday, down more than 11 £/MWh, with the UK prompt easing even as continental prices firmed on heat and hydro and nuclear risk. Generation margins remain the supportive theme into the new week: France's EDF has extended the 1.3 GW Golfech 2 outage to 19 July on high cooling-water temperatures, UK nuclear availability is curtailed by unplanned losses at Heysham 1 and Hartlepool, and above-normal temperatures peaking around 16 July are lifting cooling demand. A forecast recovery in wind later in the week is the main counterweight.
Other Commodities
Across other commodities, crude was broadly flat into Friday's close, with Brent at 76.01 $/bbl and WTI at 71.41 $/bbl, as traders treated the escalation as a risk-premium rather than a supply event. Coal ARA CIF Cal-27 eased to 114.42 $/tonne. In carbon, EUA Dec-26 firmed to €79.20 per tonne while UK ETS Dec-26 slipped to £56.40 per tonne, leaving UKAs at around an £11 per tonne discount to EUAs. Global LNG benchmarks were softer into the weekend, with Asian JKM near 17.6 $/MMBtu and Henry Hub around 2.7 to 2.9 $/MMBtu, while sterling firmed to 1.1743 against the euro and held at 1.3405 against the dollar.