Energy Market Report - 14 July 2026
Escalating tensions in the Middle East dominated wholesale energy markets on Monday, with reports of attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz and the prospect of a transit fee on Gulf cargoes driving prompt gas, power and oil sharply higher. Gains extended across the complex despite a broadly comfortable supply backdrop, leaving prices firmly bid into Tuesday as traders priced a growing geopolitical risk premium.
Natural Gas
The front of the curve led the advance, with NBP day-ahead settling at 124.00 p/therm, up almost 7 p/therm, and bid towards 128 p/therm this morning, while TTF front-month firmed to around €51/MWh. Reports of slower vessel traffic through Hormuz, cited by traders, stoked fears over prompt LNG availability and widened the JKM premium to TTF, even as Norwegian flows held healthy at roughly 325 mcm/day and additional gas was routed to the UK. Supply-side risks were reinforced by a process issue at Norway's Asgard field and the continuing Freeport LNG export outage in the US, while European storage at around 52 per cent full remained below seasonal norms, keeping refill progress in focus.
Electricity
UK power moved higher with gas and carbon, day-ahead baseload settling at £113.71/MWh, up £6.76, and the peak up £10.37 at £104.76/MWh, with the forward curve firmer on higher thermal costs as Q4-26 reached £110.49/MWh. Warm weather sustained cooling demand and wind output stayed inconsistent, leaving gas-fired plant to set the marginal price, while several UK nuclear units including Heysham 1, Hartlepool 1 and Sizewell B remained offline. On the Continent, French nuclear output was curtailed at several reactors as elevated river temperatures forced reductions under environmental limits, tightening margins and lifting German and French forward power.
Other Commodities
Brent crude jumped $7.29 to $83.30/bbl as the Hormuz headlines and talk of a 20 per cent transit fee reignited supply-security concerns, and coal API2 Cal Y+1 firmed to $118.52/tonne on the broader risk bid. Carbon edged higher on both schemes, the EUA December 2026 contract closing at €80.11/tonne and the UK ETS equivalent at £57.08/tonne, leaving the UKA at a discount of around £11/tonne to the EUA. In LNG benchmarks the Asian JKM front-month rose to $18.61/MMBtu while US Henry Hub held near $2.83/MMBtu, and sterling softened to 1.1719 against the euro and 1.3346 against the dollar.