Energy Market Report - 10 July 2026
Middle East supply risk continued to shape energy markets this week, with disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and reported delays to Qatari LNG production keeping a risk premium under gas and oil. Thursday's session extended the rally across UK and European gas and power before prices eased this morning as weather forecasts turned less supportive and Norwegian supply recovered.
Natural Gas
NBP day-ahead settled at 121.50 p/therm yesterday, up around 4% on the day, while TTF day-ahead cleared €50/MWh for the first time in a month. The front of the curve firmed too - NBP Aug-26 settled at 120.83 p/therm and Win-26 at 122.31 p/therm - as Norwegian nominations fell by around 12 mcm/day and hot, still weather sustained gas-for-power demand. This morning the prompt has softened: the UK system opened long, gas-for-power requirements are forecast 12 mcm/day lower at 29 mcm/day, and Gassco exit nominations recovered to 319.8 mcm/day with Asgard back from maintenance, lifting Langeled flows into the UK. LNG sendout remains elevated at 11 mcm/day and the north-west European arrivals schedule is healthy, but EU storage inventories remain below year-ago levels, leaving the market sensitive to any disruption over the rest of the injection season.
Electricity
UK day-ahead baseload settled at £118.02/MWh yesterday, £1.53 lower, even as the forward curve gained - Aug-26 added £1.92 to £103.40/MWh and Win-26 rose to £106.79/MWh. Support came from the gas rally, reduced French nuclear output as river temperatures climb - with the Chooz-2 reactor reportedly offline until 25 July - and thin domestic nuclear availability, with both Sizewell B units and reactors at Hartlepool and Heysham on outage. Balancing costs reflected the tightness, with system buy prices reaching £195/MWh on Thursday evening. This morning baseload has tracked gas lower in thin liquidity, and a forecast recovery in wind generation above seasonal norms over the weekend should ease pressure on system margins.
Other Commodities
Brent settled at $76.30/bbl yesterday, down 2.2% as part of the week's geopolitical premium unwound, though it remains more than 6% higher week-on-week; WTI closed at $72.08/bbl. Coal firmed, with ARA Cal-27 rising to $116.49/t, up around 5% on the week. Carbon was quiet - EUA Dec-26 settled flat at €79.04/t and UK ETS Dec-26 edged up to £56.59/t. In global gas, JKM climbed to $18.23/MMBtu as strong Asian buying keeps competition for flexible cargoes elevated, while Henry Hub slipped towards $3.0/MMBtu.