Energy Market Report - 09 July 2026
Wholesale energy prices firmed further into Thursday as a renewed round of US strikes on Iran and the continued threat to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz kept a heavy risk premium across gas, power and the wider commodity complex. Supply-side tightness, weak storage injections and a north-west European heatwave added to the bullish tone, with crude at multi-week highs and carbon the notable laggard.
Natural Gas
Gas held firm after a week of sharp gains, underpinned by geopolitics and a tight supply balance rather than any fresh demand surge. NBP settled at 117.25 p/therm yesterday and traded broadly in line this morning, with the front-month around 116 to 117 p/therm and Winter 26 easing to near 119 p/therm after closing above 120 on Wednesday; TTF day-ahead settled close to €48.90/MWh. On the supply side, Gassco exit nominations fell to 315.8 mcm/day, the Ormen Lange outage is now expected to run into scheduled maintenance and persist into October, and a process issue at Oseberg has cut UK-bound flows further, leaving combined Norwegian deliveries to Britain near 59.7 mcm/day. European storage sat around 51% full, roughly 10 percentage points below last year with injections running about 12.5% lower year-on-year, while UK LNG send-out eased to about 8 mcm/day with no domestic cargoes scheduled and Asian JKM firm at $17.46/MMBtu.
Electricity
Power rose in step with fuels and a tight generation stack, led by the front of the curve. The UK front-month baseload firmed close to 3 £/MWh this morning to around 104 £/MWh, with Winter 26 near 106 £/MWh, while the day-ahead eased from Wednesday's £119.55/MWh settlement to about £117.50 as wind recovered from a sharp drop that saw output fall to 2.9 GW, or 8.7% of the mix. Strong solar is partly offsetting below-normal wind, but the bigger continental story is France, where heat-related nuclear cuts removed nearly 5% of capacity with more expected. In the UK, availability is improving as a reactor returns at Heysham 2, with further units at Heysham 1 and Hartlepool due back in early August, which should lift baseload supply after months of heavy maintenance.
Other Commodities
Oil led the wider complex to multi-week highs on the renewed strikes, with Brent settling at $78.02/bbl, up around 5% on the day, and WTI at $73.52/bbl, the move driven by the perceived threat to Hormuz transit rather than any realised loss of barrels. Coal firmed alongside, the ARA Cal-27 contract settling at $115.05/t. Carbon bucked the trend: the EUA Dec-26 contract eased to €79.04/t, down about 1.4%, with the UK ETS Dec-26 at £56.46/t, both lagging the fuel-led rally. In LNG, Asian JKM held firm at $17.46/MMBtu as the escalation and weaker send-out kept the flexible-cargo pool tight.