Energy Market Update – 12 August 2025
Gas and power nudged higher as Norwegian outages and weaker wind tightened near-term balances. Rising European storage and steady LNG flows capped gains; oil was broadly steady while carbon softened.
Natural gas firmed after a compressor failure at Norway’s Ormen Lange reduced flows by around 10 mcm/day, tightening UK imports via Nyhamna and Langeled. UK system demand eased to 153.9 mcm/day, with UKCS output lower at 77.9 mcm/day and Norwegian pipeline receipts down on the day. LNG send-out stayed modest near 8 mcm/day, mainly from South Hook, while Dragon remained inactive and Isle of Grain operated at boil-off rates. European storage continued to build, approaching 72% full. Prices reflected the tighter prompt: NBP day-ahead settled at 80.60p/therm, the September NBP contract traded near 81.25p/therm, and the equivalent TTF front-month hovered around €33/MWh. Market attention remains on ongoing Norwegian maintenance and the duration of UK terminal and upstream constraints, alongside hotter weather lifting cooling demand.
Power prices tracked gas higher as wind output fell sharply from late last week. UK day-ahead baseload settled at £86.50/MWh, with September around £78/MWh and Q4-25 near £82/MWh. Lower wind generation prompted an estimated 88% rise in gas-for-power use versus Friday, reinforcing CCGT dominance of the stack. Interconnector imports from France, Belgium and the Netherlands continued to provide balancing support. In France, temporary outages at the Gravelines nuclear site tightened the regional picture, while forecasts indicate wind and solar should recover gradually into the weekend, tempering gas burn if realised.
Other energy commodities were mixed. Brent front-month was little changed around $66.63/bbl. EU carbon eased, with EUA Dec-25 near €72.4/tonne, while UK ETS Dec-25 traded close to £52/tonne. API2 coal for 2026 was about $109/tonne. Global gas benchmarks held in a narrow range: JKM M+1 was around $11.7/MMBtu, TTF spot near $11/MMBtu and Henry Hub close to $3.05/MMBtu. Overall, comfortable LNG schedules into Northwest Europe and progressing storage levels continue to offset short-term supply hiccups, leaving curves relatively range-bound.